Piet Levy picks Grammy winners
Swift will have competition
When Taylor Swift’s “1989” sold 1.3 million copies in its first week alone, I pictured scores of Grammy voters immediately filling out their ballots, eager to reward the pop superstar for bringing some positive sales news to a beleaguered industry.
But a mountain of music has come out since that album’s release on Oct. 27, 2014. There was Kendrick Lamar’s “To Pimp a Butterfly,” the most universally lauded album in years, according to review aggregator Metacritic. The Weeknd and Chris Stapleton saw critical and commercial breakthroughs as well, meaning Swift no longer seems untouchable.
Is it possible she won’t even win a Grammy on Monday? That’s doubtful . . . but so is a sweep. Here are my predictions for who will win in the Grammy Awards’ four big categories — all of whom, I believe deserve to win this year. Album of the Year
Nominees: “1989,” Taylor Swift; “Beauty Behind the Madness,” the Weeknd; “Sound & Color,” Alabama Shakes; “To Pimp a Butterfly,” Kendrick Lamar; “Traveller,” Chris Stapleton
What will win: Swift’s “1989” may have been a phenomenon, but it’s also more than a year old at this point. Its sales success, while indisputably impressive, pales compared with what Adele accomplished with “25.”
Lamar has the most Grammy nominations, and “Butterfly” provocatively and powerfully addressed thorny topics like black-on-black violence and materialism through a fresh, possibly seminal, jazzinspired sound. It’s destined to be remembered as an important work, and it’s hard to fathom the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences snubbing Lamar again after overlooking him completely in 2014.
Record of the Year
Nominees: “Blank Space,” Taylor Swift; “Can’t Feel My Face,” the Weeknd; “Really Love,” D’Angelo and the Vanguard; “Thinking Out Loud,” Ed Sheeran; “Uptown Funk,” Mark Ronson featuring Bruno Mars
What will win: Megaproducer Max Martin is up for both “Space” and “Face,” effectively splitting votes. “Loud” is a pretty quiet song to win in a category that focuses on performance and production. “Love” was likely tossed in there so the Academy looked like it had some credibility. Instead, I pick the ubiquitous “Uptown Funk” for the win, which allows the Academy to celebrate a blockbuster hit, a superstar and respected veteran producer Ronson with a single prize. Song of the Year
Nominees: “Alright,” Kendrick Lamar; “Blank Space,”
Taylor Swift; “Girl Crush,” Little Big Town; “See You Again,” Wiz Khalifa featuring Charlie Puth; “Thinking Out Loud,” Ed Sheeran
What will win: This will be the part of the show where the inexplicably shocked Swift picks up her trophy. “Blank Space” was the strongest track on “1989,” where, for the first time, she wrote not from the perspective of a hopelessly romantic victim, but as a toxic heartbreaker, blaming herself for the end of a new relationship before it begins. (And, since Martin co-wrote the track, he can pick up an award here after losing out on Record of the Year.)
Best New Artist
Nominees: Courtney Barnett, James Bay, Sam Hunt, Tori Kelly, Meghan Trainor
What will win: The Grammys wouldn’t be the Grammys without at least one major upset, and this year, I think it’s happening in the best new artist category. Bay, Hunt, Kelly and Trainor are all polished, pop-friendly artists, while comparatively, Barnett is the renegade, the ’90s rockchanneling critics’ darling juxtaposing droll vocals with razor-sharp lyrics.