What’s ahead on the key issues
Get ready for a constant flux
The year 2016 was one few of us will soon forget — and 2017 could be just as memorable as the focus shifts from the campaign trail to Capitol Hill. With Congress back in session and President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration this week, now is a good time to step back and assess what we’ve learned in recent weeks on key issues.
It’s important to note that we are in unchartered waters. Just as important, though, is to recognize that Wisconsin has well-positioned allies in the form of House Speaker Paul Ryan and Reince Priebus, Trump’s chief of staff, who will have the state’s interests in mind.
There will be constant flux in the coming weeks and months, and every day likely will bring at least as many new questions as answers. In this unsettled state of affairs, there are two fundamental thoughts to keep in mind:
First, get used to it. In the coming weeks, the headlines and surprises only will come faster. And once the new president is sworn in, we expect immediate action in both branches. The result could be a policy and regulatory shift of historic proportions.
Second, when uncertainty is the norm and change is inevitable, access to information and communication with legislative leadership can go a long way to understanding the policy-making process around the following key issues as well as others that arise in the years ahead.
Health care: We expect GOP leadership to use a budget reconciliation bill — which can pass with just 51 votes in the Senate — to repeal some or all of the Affordable Care Act. The House of Representatives could introduce a resolution by mid-February and vote on a repeal or significant changes by the end of February.
Tax code: Expect an attempt at bipartisan tax reform by the August recess. House Speaker Paul Ryan is intent on streamlining the tax code and reducing taxes. How that plays out, and how he replaces the revenue lost to any tax cut, will be vital questions for many industries. Renewable energy tax credits are likely to come up in that discussion; wind and solar industry groups are already marshaling for a defense.
Environment: In a bill with broad bipartisan support, the Senate recently passed the Water Resources Development Act, which includes provisions allowing for diversion of more water to drought-stricken parts of California and a revamped approach to assessing how water projects will impact endangered species. We see this bill, passed after a six-year effort, as a canary in the heavily regulated coal mine, signaling a major dismantling of the Obama administration’s environmental policies.
Financial services: GOP leadership, and the presidentelect, have made clear their desire to scale back much of the Dodd-Frank regime, and we fully expect the House to pass a bill doing just that. From there, it could be complicated by the peculiar dynamic on the Democratic side of the Senate Financial Services Committee. New Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer of New York favors reform but he is no longer his party’s ranking member on the committee. His departure could embolden, or at least amplify, Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Sherrod Brown, all vociferous opponents of any and all deregulation.