Battles ahead

What should school leaders in Wisconsin learn from the Atlanta Falcons?

That’s easy: Do not celebrate until the end of the game. You’re doing great early? That’s nice, but that’s not a win. Lots can still happen.

I’m not here to explain how a team can blow a 25point lead in the Super Bowl. That’s too complicated for me. I’m sticking to simpler things, like the education aspects of the state budget proposal for the next two years presented on Wednesday by Gov. Scott Walker.

I was quite struck by what is in there. From the standpoint of schools in all parts of the state, public and private, it’s a pretty attractive package. About $200 per student more in state aid next year and $200 more on top of that the following year — that’s not a gusher, but it’s better than I suspect almost any public school leader expected Walker to offer. Additional help for rural schools, some funding for students with mental health problems and a few other provisions — it’s a proposal with surprising similarities to what Tony Evers, the state superintendent of public instruction, put forth several months ago. And Evers is a public schools establishment kinda guy.

What’s going on here? A few thoughts:

Great lobbying. You could have a big debate whether the Act 10 civil war of six years ago, when Walker took on teachers unions, etc., and won, helped or hurt schools. But set that aside. In the following state budgets, approved in 2013 and 2015, public schools did not fare well. The spending lid stayed tight as expenses rose. Negative effects of tight finances increased.

The new proposal from Walker is a credit to lobbying by public school people all across the state for the last two years. I’m not talking about lobbying inside the Capitol, although that matters. I’m talking about what goes on in community conversations every place in the state. And the farther from Madison, the more Republican the home turf, the better. People, not just school officials, have been telling their political representatives their schools need more money, and Walker and Republicans in the Legislature are responding.

The next campaign(s) for Walker. For various reasons, the atmosphere hasn’t been so sweet for Walker the last couple years. That includes the effect of the last state budget go-round and the failed presidential bid, of course. The 2018 governor’s race approaches (and who knows what beyond that) and Walker wants to revive his popularity. He clearly sees being nicer to schools and the University of Wisconsin as steps toward doing that.

Keeping controversy at arm’s length. Look at two things that were not in Walker’s proposal:

There was no significant proposed actions regarding voucher or charter school programs, except that those schools would get the same perstudent increases as public schools.

And there was no proposal to “do something” about Milwaukee Public Schools. There’s a proposal for some financial incentives for high-performing schools in Milwaukee and for low-performing schools that show improvement, but it’s kind of a low-key matter, nothing like the failed Opportunity Schools program of two years ago (which wasn’t a Walker proposal, anyway).

What do voucher expansion and MPS reform have in common? They’re both hornets’ nests. Walker clearly is eager at the moment to tout the good news to the public statewide and dodge the hornets.

Dealing with the hornets. So no controversies this year? Wrong. And who will get to deal with them? Legislative Republicans, that’s who. And I expect they will.

There already is resistance being voiced to the $200-plus increases per student and what they would mean to taxes and to spending in other areas (roads, roads and roads, to name three).

There are some twists and turns in Walker’s school funding proposal that are stirring up opposition, such as tying the new money to his standard for compliance with Act 10.

Vouchers are still going to come up. No one will re-fight the big battles of the past — unlimited vouchers in Milwaukee and Madison, with generous standards for who can take part. But there will be advocacy for changing the rules for the stillsmall statewide voucher program.

For example, as things stand, no more than 1% of the students in any school district in the state (except Milwaukee and Racine) can use a voucher to go to a private school. Jim Bender, president of School Choice Wisconsin, says more than 20 districts in the state have hit that limit. There will be a push to change that rule and maybe to raise the income eligibility standard for statewide vouchers. (Currently, vouchers statewide are available only to families that are decidedly more low-income than in the Milwaukee and Racine programs.)

And what about special education vouchers? No mention of those in Walker’s budget, but the small program started this school year has pretty convoluted rules for admission. I bet there will be a push to make such vouchers more available.

As for Milwaukee, MPS might get off fairly easy this time, perhaps because its own strategy of showing legislators that it’s working to deal more forthrightly with its problems is working.

All of which is to say, the game is only beginning.

My guess is that, in the end, schools, both public and private, will get a decent boost in per-pupil spending. Legislators have heard from their communities. But it will be less than the $200 increments Walker proposed. And there are likely to be other surprises related to education during the budget process.

The victory parade? Don’t schedule it until after the budget is done in the summer. Remember how quiet it was on the streets of Atlanta last week. And the Falcons led by 25 points! Can you believe it?