Lower strikeout rate paying off
CHICAGO - If it seems as if the Milwaukee Brewers have been striking out less frequently than they did earlier in the season, it’s because they are.
Asked recently to what he attributed that improvement, manager Craig Counsell smiled and said, “Less strikeouts.”
A bit smart-alecky, yes, but Counsell’s point was that strikeouts come and go for some teams. In 2016, they came quite frequently for the Brewers, who whiffed 1,543 times, a major-league record that equated to 9.53 strikeouts per game.
During the opening weeks of this season, the Brewers seemed destined to make another run at that record. Through 20 games, they struck out 206 times, a torrid pace of 10.3 per game.
Then, suddenly, the whiffage slowed down noticeably. Over the next 20 games, the Brewers struck out only 170 times, a reduced rate of 8.5 per game.
Over those first 20 games, the Brewers were 9-11. Over the next 20, they went 13-7. A coincidence? Not really. Yes, you can win games while logging high strikeout numbers, but the more you put the ball in play, the better chance you have of scoring runs.
On the Brewers’ last home stand, the Boston Red Sox visited Miller Park for the first time in 14 years. The Sox are known for grinding out at-bats, fouling off pitches and keeping strikeouts to a minimum. They are doing so again this year, leading the major leagues by striking out only 6.6 times per game.
In that series, the Brewers matched the Red Sox in putting together tough at-bats, especially with runners in scoring position. In the first two games, the Brewers struck out a total of nine times. And, by the way, they won by scores of 11-7 and 7-4.
In the series finale, the Brewers struck out 11 times and scored just once in a 4-1 loss to Boston. Hmmm.
This might fall a bit under the “duh” category because in many of those high-strikeout games, the Brewers faced tough pitchers to beat. But they’ve fared much better when striking out fewer than 10 times a game. How much better? They are 19-5 in games with nine or fewer strikeouts and 6-13 with 10 or more strikeouts.
Now, before we schedule a parade to salute the drop in strikeouts, time for a moment of clarity. The Brewers still are averaging 9.3 strikeouts per game, only two clicks below their record pace of last season. They rank second in the majors with 399 through 43 games.
A lot of that had to do with the high strikeout rates of two hitters in particular, Jonathan Villar (55 in 169 at-bats) and Keon Broxton (55 in 132 atbats), who had combined for more than a one-fourth of the team’s total. The fact remains that as the season has progressed, the Brewers are doing a better job of putting balls in play.
“No one likes striking out,” Counsell said. “They’re not trying to strike out. We have young hitters. There are going to be times when they strike out. As they get more and more at-bats under their belt, they will strike out less.
“I’m not suggesting you’re going to see that from the first week of the season to now. It’s a longer-term thing. But as those guys get more and more atbats, you get sick of swinging at sliders in the dirt, and you stop swinging at them. A big part of it is youth. It’s a product of youth a little bit and experience, and as we get that, you’ll see guys get better at it.”
It certainly didn’t hurt that Brewers general manager David Stearns acquired some players last winter who keep their strikeouts within reason. That includes first basemen Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar, who are not all-or-nothing sluggers in the mold of predecessor Chris Carter.
New cleanup hitter Travis Shaw and new catcher Jett Bandy don’t strike out a lot, either, nor does Manny Piña, who shares the backstop duties with Bandy.
“I will say that has nothing to do with their additions,” Counsell said of those newcomers. “Strikeouts happen. It hasn’t been a focus. We’re trying to do damage.
“We’ve done a better job with two strikes lately. But it’s not a ‘don’t strike out’ mentality. It’s still put your best swing on a pitch you can hit. That’s still what you’re doing.
“As these guys go on, they’ll get better at defending two strikes, spoiling some good pitches and keeping the at-bat alive for that pitch you can do that damage with.”
Which is something we’ve already seen happen. Don’t forget, many of these players are just getting their big-league careers going. Broxton entered the season with 209 at-bats; Bandy, 211; Orlando Arcia, 201; Pina, 87; Aguilar, 58.
Hernán Pérez, starting to come into his own, was at 740 at-bats at season’s start. Shaw was at a similar stage with 706. Villar entered the year with 1,178 at-bats but 589 of those came last year.
It takes time for most hitters to settle in and figure out what pitchers are trying to do. The Brewers didn’t expect overnight success when they turned over their lineup in its entirety, other than leftfielder Ryan Braun.
But it is easy to see the Brewers have more depth this season in what Counsell calls his position player group. It remains to be seen if the overall strikeout numbers will decrease significantly over the course of the entire season, but recent signs have been good.
“We’ve got a lot of guys contributing,” Counsell said. “This guy can be hot, this guy can be not swinging it so good. But we have enough guys who can do damage and create offense. It doesn’t take one guy.
“They can kind of take turns, as over the course of a normal season you would. This year, we’ve created more length in our lineup; we’ve created more depth in our lineup; we’ve created more balance in our lineup. The hitters are doing a really good job.”
And that includes making more contact.