A playoff contender? Here are reasons to believe, to doubt
The Milwaukee Brewers enter the second half of the season Friday night with a 5 1/2-game lead over the Cubs and Cardinals in the NL Central. Is this rebuilding ballclub really a playoff contender?
3 REASONS TO BELIEVE
1. MISSING LINKS RETURN: The Brewers’ first-half showing was more amazing considering the lack of contributions from four players considered key to their fortunes – second baseman Jonathan Villar, leftfielder Ryan Braun, No. 1 starter Junior Guerra and closer Neftali Feliz. Villar batted .221 with a .641 OBP, Braun missed 51 games with a calf injury, Guerra was lost on opening day for six weeks with a calf strain and struggled upon his return (4.78 ERA in 10 starts), and Feliz eventually was released because he couldn’t keep the ball in the park (eight homers in 27 innings).
All-star Corey Knebel took over as closer without missing a beat but if Guerra and Villar come close in the second half to performing as they did in 2016, and Braun can stay healthy, the Brewers could be even better after the break.
2. THE COMEBACK KID: Nobody expects Eric Thames to produce for an entire half as he did in April (club-record 11 homers, 1.276 OPS) after playing the previous three seasons in South Korea. But he isn’t likely to continue the slide he experienced in May (three homers, .791 OPS) and June (six homers, .669 OPS, 39 strikeouts in 105 plate appearances).
Thames is intelligent and works hard, and is bound to find a middle ground of performance in the second half, which will be plenty good. He did hit three homers with a 1.250 OPS in his first six games of July.
3. CAVALRY WILL ARRIVE: Principal owner Mark Attanasio has shown in the past that when the Brewers are in the running for the postseason he will approve what it takes to improve the team. He and general manager David Stearns won’t blow up the rebuilding plan and trade prospects for rentals but they will look for help they can control beyond the 2017 season.
It takes two to tango before the July 31 trade deadline and the two commodities the Brewers likely will explore – starting pitching and relief – never come cheap. But the farm system has been stocked to the point where a prospect or two can be dealt without serious harm. A small move was made Thursday with the acquisition of Yankees lefty Tyler Webb.
3 REASONS TO DOUBT
1. NAP TIME IS OVER: The Cubs are bound to wake up soon, right? Not even Rip Van Winkle slept this long. You look at the talent on Chicago’s roster and you keep waiting for it to surface and resemble, at least slightly, the club that won it all in 2016 to end a 108-year wait. Their lackluster showing (43-45) has been called a World Series hangover but even the worst hangovers eventually end. And management provided a big jumpstart in acquiring lefty Jose Quintana from the White Sox on Thursday.
St. Louis has been underachieving, as well, especially considering the Cardinals rank fourth in the NL in starting pitching. The Brewers have 10 games remaining against Chicago and eight against St. Louis, so those teams can make a move in those games if they get their acts together.
2. TAXING THE PEN: Manager Craig Counsell rode his bullpen in the first half, largely due to an ongoing series of short starts by his rotation in the first six weeks or so. In particular, Carlos Torres, Jacob Barnes and Corey Knebel – the three relievers he trusted most with close leads – were worked hard. All three rank in the top 10 in the NL in games pitched (Knebel and Torres, 43; Barnes 42) and heavy workloads become more taxing as the season progresses.
It helped in recent weeks when the Brewers went to an extra reliever in the pen, and the resurgence of Jared Hughes also helped lighten the load on the previously mentioned trio. Baseball has become a bullpen game so the Brewers’ fate likely will be tied to how their relievers perform down the stretch.
3. TASK GETS TOUGHER: The Brewers play 51 of their 71 games in the second half against teams with losing records, including those 18 against the Cubs and Cardinals. But they also play 39 on the road, including a pair of three-city journeys (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Washington later this month, and Colorado, San Francisco and Los Angeles in August).
The pressure also will ramp up in the second half as the pennant races typically heat up. It’s one thing to surprise folks in the first half and get to the break in first place. It’s another to see it through to the end.