Polls say Trump has squandered his chance to broaden base
President has seen drop in popularity since inauguration
Because he was the most unpopular politician to win the presidency in modern polling, it was vital for Donald Trump to broaden his base of support once he took office.
It was also perfectly doable, since his popularity was so low to begin with.
But seven months into his term, there is no sign it has happened.
Trump’s “negatives” are just as high today as they were at the end of the 2016 campaign. “He’s done nothing to expand his base and, if anything, he’s sort of where he was, or experiencing greater erosion,” says Lee
Miringoff, who conducted polls this month for NBC/ Marist in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that showed Trump with a job approval rating in the mid-30s. Trump won all three key battlegrounds last fall.
The president’s problems can be found both inside and outside his political base.
Take Wisconsin, which he carried by less than a point in 2016.
Demographic groups that voted against him — women, college grads and younger voters — now dislike him as much as or more than they did last fall (in some cases by truly staggering margins).
And some groups that voted for him in Wisconsin — men, older voters, blue-collar whites — now view him and his presidency negatively.
Even Republicans are far from uniform in their support. Almost a third say they are embarrassed by his conduct as president.
There are so many troubling numbers for Trump in the latest state and national polls that it’s hard to know what to highlight.
But here are some findings from the NBC/Marist survey of 910 Wisconsin adults, taken Aug. 13-17:
Trump has a negative approval rating from blue-collar whites, a group that is widely perceived as his demographic base, represents about half the vote in Wisconsin and favored Trump by nearly 30 percentage points last fall over Democrat Hillary Clinton. Among whites without a college degree, 38% approve of Trump and 47% disapprove. Democrat Barack Obama is today significantly more popular with these blue-collar voters in Wisconsin than Trump is. Obama is viewed favorably by 52%, Trump by 36%.
Trump’s standing with college grads, women and younger voters — three groups he struggled with in the campaign — is catastrophic. Only 24% of college grads in Wisconsin approve of his performance. Only 29% of voters under 45 do. Only 25% of women do, while 63% disapprove. It’s pretty extraordinary to see presidential numbers that lopsided from groups that represent broad demographic categories. Women make up over half the electorate. If you’re at negative 38 percentage points with an entire gender (25% approval minus 63% disapproval), it’s hard to overcome.
A significant minority of conservatives and Republicans express doubts, fears or disapproval of Trump. This is a polarized age. Modern presidents can expect almost unanimous opposition from voters in the other party, so they depend on nearly unanimous support from voters in their own party. But in the NBC/Marist Wisconsin poll, 19% of Republicans disapprove of Trump, 24% view him negatively, 25% think America’s role on the world stage has been weakened by his decisions, 31% feel embarrassed by his conduct as president, and 37% think he’s done more to divide the party than unite it.
“These are not numbers that show anything resembling a honeymoon,” says Miringoff, director of the Marist College poll. “These are not numbers to wage a reelection on.”
Do they spell disaster for Trump’s party in the midterms? It’s too soon to tell. So much could happen between now and November 2018, and Trump has confounded many political rules. He’s now attacking his own party leaders in Congress. Does that demoralize GOP voters? Does it turn Trump’s base against congressional Republicans? Does it make it easier for Republicans up for re-election to separate themselves from Trump?
The party has built-in advantages that could reduce the impact of an unpopular president. The make-up of House seats favors the GOP. So does the Senate election cycle, since Republicans are defending fewer seats than Democrats are.
But an unpopular Trump and a GOP Congress that failed to deliver on big items such as health care and taxes would be twin perils for the party.
GOP Gov. Scott Walker is viewed favorably by 40% of registered voters and unfavorably by 53% in the NBC/Marist poll of Wisconsin adults. Those numbers are better than Trump’s, but they’re not good. And the more unpopular Trump is, the more Walker has to “outperform” Trump’s standing in Wisconsin. The Republican Party’s favorability rating (33%) is six points lower in the state than the Democratic Party’s (39%).
The NBC/Marist survey is just one poll, but its findings on Trump are consistent with most national polls in at least three respects.
One is the broad public discomfort with Trump’s rhetoric and behavior in office. In a new George Washington University Battleground Poll, 71% agree with the statement that his “behavior is not what I expect from a president.”
A second is the breadth of disapproval cutting across almost all categories of people (in a recent Quinnipiac national poll, almost every demographic and political group disapproved of Trump except Republicans, white men and whites without college degrees).
And a third is Trump’s failure to exploit the opportunity when he took office to become a more unifying, more “presidential” or simply more popular figure.
Compare Trump’s popularity in Wisconsin on Election Day (measured by the exit polls and provided for this story by Edison Research) with his popularity today (measured by the NBC/Marist poll):
Overall, 35% viewed him favorably in Wisconsin on Election Day; now 32% do.
Among women, 33% viewed him favorably on Election Day; now 23% do.
Among college grads, 26% viewed him favorably on Election Day; now 22% do.
Among voters under age 45, 31% viewed him favorably on Election Day; now 28% do.
Among blue-collar whites, 48% viewed him favorably on Election Day; now 36% do.
Among Republicans, 70% viewed him favorably on Election Day; now 68% do.
Among Democrats, 6% viewed him favorably on Election Day; now 2% do.
Among independents, 32% viewed him favorably on Election Day; now 29% do.
These numbers shouldn’t be read with too much precision. They are not perfect apples-to-apples comparisons, since the exit poll figures are based on interviews with actual voters, and the present-day numbers are based on a survey of adults.
But they paint a rough picture, and most polling shows the same pattern. Perceptions of Trump are back where they were during the campaign, which isn’t good. Yes, he still won the election with those negatives, but he did so narrowly in the key electoral states, and did so despite losing the popular vote. Many people who voted for him didn’t like him, but disliked Clinton more or simply wanted a change.
In Wisconsin, 27% of Trump’s own voters said they didn’t have a favorable opinion of him, according to the 2016 exit poll.
Those voters, presumably, wanted him to succeed and were willing to reassess their views of Trump once he became president. But after an initial, post-election bump, Trump has been dropping in approval by about 1 percentage point a month, according to pollster and political scientist Charles Franklin of the Marquette Law School.
That’s a rate of decline fairly typical for modern first-term presidents, but a damaging one for a president who began with the lowest approval in polling history. The result: Trump’s national popularity and job ratings are now languishing, on average, in the high 30s.
The opportunity was there after Trump took office to expand his base of support. It hasn’t happened.
One big question now is whether the opportunity is still there.
A bigger one is whether he could seize it.
“These are not numbers that show anything resembling a honeymoon. These are not numbers to wage a re-election on.” LEE MIRINGOFF DIRECTOR OF THE MARIST COLLEGE POLL