Foundation set for future starting rotation
At the start of this surprising season by the Brewers, starting pitching looked like it might be a liability, not an asset.
Things got off to a bad start on the very first day of the season when Junior Guerra suffered a hamstring strain that would sideline him for six weeks. Guerra would never return to the form that made him a 30-year-old rookie sensation in 2016, eventually getting sent to the minors.
Wily Peralta got off to a solid start, going 3-0 with a 2.65 earned run average over his first three outings. But it got ugly after that, and by mid-May Peralta was shuffled off to relief work, an experiment that failed and resulted in banishment to the minor leagues as well.
(Tommy Milone also made a few early starts but his Brewers “career” would prove to be quite short).
Zach Davies was winning games but mostly through generous run support. He had trouble getting through the sixth inning and his 5.08 ERA through 14 starts was indicative of his struggles to hold down enemy lineups.
Jimmy Nelson also got off to a fitful start. He opened the season with two solid outings but the next three were struggles, resulting in a 1-2 record and 5.34 ERA for April.
Veteran Matt Garza, trying to reinvent himself somewhat with a nod to decreased velocity from his younger days, had some effective early outings with promise. He had problems with one big inning marring starts and also was guilty of too many early exits but held his own to remain in the rotation.
Chase Anderson was the only starter to break out of the gate in truly strong fashion. Showing up with increased velocity and crisper off-speed stuff, he gave every indication that 2017 was going to be a breakthrough season after a solid finish the previous year.
The issues in the rotation, particularly the inability to go deep in games, forced manager Craig Counsell to go early and often to his bullpen. That heavy usage would eventually take a toll on the relief corps, which began springing leaks. It didn’t help that closer Neftali Feliz couldn’t keep the ball in the yard, eventually leading to his release.
It was the offense that carried the Brewers over the first half, when they forged a 50-41 record and 51⁄2-game lead in the National League Central. But the bats went silent after the break and the Brewers gave back all of that margin and then some, falling behind the suddenly awake Chicago Cubs.
What saved the Brewers during the tough times for the offense, you ask? The starting rotation, which picked up the slack in a big way. Entering Saturday, the starters had a combined 4.09 ERA, fifth-best in the NL. Earlier in the season, the Brewers were in the bottom five.
In particular, Davies, Nelson and Anderson stepped up to form a three-man foundation for the rotation that bodes well for the future. A finesse pitcher who relies heavily on hitting his spots, Davies found a groove and no longer needed generous run support, building a 16-7 record while lowering his ERA to 3.85.
Using a compact delivery that helps eliminate the control issues that plagued him throughout the 2016 season, Nelson also has taken a step forward to realize the full benefit of his physical talents. He had a couple of hiccups in August but overall has been impressive, including seven shutout innings Friday night against Washington, morphing into one of the top strikeout pitchers (192) in the league.
Anderson’s only problem this season was an oblique injury suffered in late June that sidelined him for more than a month. But he is back in action and still throwing the ball well, as evidenced by his 8-3 record and 2.96 ERA.
“All three of them you could say are in a really good spot,” Counsell said of the trio of Davies, Nelson and Anderson. “To me, they’ve taken a step forward. They have pitched well and done it for a while now. It’s a big reason we’re sitting where we’re at right now.”
The Brewers still have an important September to play as they seek to stay in both the NL Central and wild-card playoff races. But the decision-makers now know starting pitching can be a strength going forward with the foundation of those three righthanders.
Davies, 24, isn’t arbitration eligible until after next season, and the Brewers have four more years of contractual control. Nelson, 28, is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and has three more years of control. Anderson, 29, lost his first arbitration case last winter as a “Super 2” player and also has three more years of control.
It is essential for the Brewers to build a starting rotation with contractual control because they cannot afford to pay the salaries the Cubs shelled out to build their rotation. Chicago’s current rotation of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Arrieta, Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks has a combined $55 million in salaries, not much less than the Brewers’ total payroll for 2017.
Garza is in the final month of a four-year, $50 million contract that never paid dividends for the Brewers (he is 26-38, 4.61 in 93 games). He will not be back in 2018. It’s also difficult to imagine Peralta making another start for the Brewers. Guerra, 31, is not completely out of the picture but at this juncture is profiling as a one-year wonder.
Left-hander Brent Suter did a nice job filling in for Anderson during his absence before being sidelined by an ailing shoulder. Suter is back now and will start Sunday against Washington, but whether his future with the Brewers is in a starting role remains to be seen.
Not knowing what moves the Brewers will make over the off-season, it’s easy to picture a 2018 starting rotation of Davies, Nelson, Anderson, Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader. Woodruff, 24, made his fourth big-league start Saturday and would have more under his belt if not for a hamstring injury suffered before his scheduled debut.
Hader, 23, was the Brewers’ No. 1 starting prospect when summoned to the majors this season and put in the bullpen to ease the transition. He has been a huge success as a rookie and might be the next Will Smith out of the pen, but the Brewers have indicated Hader would return to starting in the future.
Whether Hader has the repertoire needed to be a successful starting pitcher in the big leagues remains to be seen. He has thrown mostly fastballs (84% thus far) coming out of the bullpen, mainly because you can get away with that in short bursts, but would have to use his slider and changeup much more as a starter.
Starting rotations can be volatile and pitchers come and go every season. But if the Brewers do begin next season with the fivesome of Davies, Nelson, Anderson, Woodruff and Hader, they would have reason to expect success.