Trump needs to cool the rhetoric on North Korea
Americans, like most Westerners, rarely look at the perspective of those they confront. This is a fatal error.
Fredrick Jackson Turner described the United States as an expansionist country, expanding west and moving into land by war and peace: Mexico, Alaska, Louisiana, the Philippines and Hawaii. Turner could have described Imperial Russia in the same manner.
China looks inward, protecting itself with geographic barriers and buffer states. There are 14 countries bordering China, with North Korea being one of the most important. Why? The United States has a major presence in South Korea. A unified Korea would be dominated by the U.S., China believes.
The primary concern of North Korea is survival. They know they are weak compared to larger nations, even with the fourth largest army in the world. Therefore, they have adopted the “crazy man” school of diplomacy. This is what Kim Jong-un’s father and grandfather used to some success.
Simply put, your adversary is at a loss on what you are willing to do. North Korea is like the guy who pulls the pin on a hand grenade and is willing (so you believe) to kill himself and you.
North Korea’s fears that it will be invaded are plausible.
The United States has changed regimes in Central and South America, Iraq, Iran and Libya. We tried to maintain the Kuomintang in China. And these are but a few of the countries we have targeted.
In this respect, North Korean apprehensions are reality-based.
Part of what we are doing to reduce North Korea’s nuclear threat has merit. We have encouraged China and Russia to reduce trade. The Chinese recently reduced exports of oil (they supply 80% of North Korean oil), shut off the purchase of textiles and have stopped importing coal.
Words for Americans are not as important as they are to other cultures. When George W. Bush spoke about the Axis of Evil that included North Korea, it had a negative response from them: “This is, in fact, little short of declaring a war against the D.P.R.K”.
Kim labeled President Donald Trump as mentally deranged and a dotard in response to Trump’s description of Kim as “Rocket Man” and a mad man. Perhaps both are right. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov observed that this was, “Like when children in a kindergarten start fighting and no one can stop them.” How true!
Kim does not want to lose face.
What is needed is a way to de-escalate. China offered the advice of the U.S. ending or reducing joint military exercises with South Korea. The advice was ignored. Instead, we flew war planes close to the North Korean border. This is, simply, very stupid.
No one wants a war with North Korea. Nuclear warfare would be a last resort since it would affect Japan, South Korea, China and Russia. A land war could be won, but at great cost in wealth and manpower — and to what end?
Sun Tzu’s “Art of War” offers good wisdom:
First, always give your enemy a back door
And second, know yourself and your enemy. If not, you are doomed to fail.
In short, we must lower the stakes by eliminating the rhetoric. Continue the economic boycott, especially since China is cooperating. And, most important, convince Kim that the goal of the United States is stability, not change.