Trump may help Walker in election
Even though there are now more candidates in the 2018 race for Wisconsin governor than people who will actually watch the gubernatorial debates, there’s one name missing from the ballot that might affect the election more than any other.
The specter of President Donald Trump will hang over every campaign from here on in, from state Assembly races to the U.S. Senate race to take down Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin. But Trump’s odor will be particularly pungent around the governor’s race, given that all of Gov. Scott Walker’s Democratic opponents (six major entrants so far, with more probably on the way) will be hammering him with the missteps of the Trump administration.
Since Trump won Wisconsin last November, Walker has managed the Trump influence shrewdly. The governor has criticized the president when he has disagreed with him (on accepting refugees from war zones, on attacking Gold Star families of fallen soldiers), but he has also been smart enough to work with Trump’s administration on issues affecting Wisconsin (such as bringing Foxconn to the state.) Walker has been one of the more successful GOP politicians in straddling the pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions in the party, much as he did with the tea party.
Nevertheless, there will be times during the campaign when Walker will be backed into a corner and forced to defend one of Trump’s indefensible actions. So far, he’s been capable of Houdini-like escapes from the boxes Trump has put Republicans in. But there’s no reason to believe the president won’t make a catastrophic mistake down the road that could sink anyone associated with the Republican Party. (Robert Mueller’s investigation into Trump associates’ dealings with Russia is a wild card.)
Ultimately, though, the Trump Effect in Wisconsin likely will help Walker. After all, Wisconsin voters knew full well who Trump was when they went to the polls, and they voted for him anyway. If there’s evidence that associating with Trump hurts Republican politicians in the state, I haven’t seen it.
In order to take out Scott Walker, whose approval rating in the most recent statewide Marquette University Law School Poll was the highest since his decision to run for president in 2015, a Democrat will have to deliver a strong message to voters. But the state’s progressives have had eight years to keep Walker out of office, and no theme they’ve cooked up so far has turned enough voters against him.
And that’s where Trump could drastically hinder the Democrats’ attempts to tarnish Walker in 2018. With every new ridiculous tweet or legal development from the White House, Trump will soak up media coverage like a biscuit soaks up the gravy. Voters only have so much capacity for political coverage — if Trump continues to hog the spotlight, it will be impossible for Walker challengers to get any traction through state and local media. Everything is now national, all the time — and the fewer people talking about local races, the better it is for incumbents.
In the upcoming months, you may be hearing pundits wonder how Scott Walker can overcome the Trump Effect in Wisconsin. Actually, they should be asking Democrats that question.