Poll: Most Americans doubt GOP tax bill claims
WASHINGTON – Congressional Republicans are poised to pass the biggest tax overhaul in a generation, but Americans remain unconvinced that the measure will cut their own taxes or significantly boost the economy.
A new USA TODAY/ Suffolk University Poll finds just 32 percent support the GOP tax plan; 48 percent oppose it. That’s the lowest level of public support for any major piece of legislation enacted in the past three decades.
Americans are skeptical of the fundamental arguments Republicans have made in selling the bill: A 53 percent majority of those surveyed predict their own families won’t pay lower taxes as a result of the measure, and an equal 53 percent say it won’t help the economy in a major way.
A conference committee is now trying to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the bill, and congressional leaders are optimistic that a final version will be on President Donald Trump’s desk by Christmas.
“It’s fairly favorable to the highest earners and to corporations,” said Thomas Beline, 36, a lawyer in Washington, D.C., who was among those surveyed. “I have a dim view of the ability of corporations to take that money and hire people or invest . ... What I think is likely to happen is you’re going to see higher dividends paid out to shareholders, who already are some of the wealthiest people in the country.”
The findings underscore the risk for Republicans even as they move toward achieving one of the party’s top policy priorities and delivering the first major legislative achievement of the Trump administration.
Christopher Warshaw, a political scientist at George Washington University, cautioned that passage of the bill will make it more likely Democrats win control of the House in next year’s midterm elections.
“In recent decades, Congress has never passed a major bill this unpopular,” Warshaw said. “I think that passing this bill will substantially hurt the GOP brand — particularly among moderate, well-educated suburban voters and among the workingclass white voters that switched over to support Trump in 2016.”
One reason the GOP is moving ahead is that Republican voters are enthusiastic. In the survey, they backed the tax bill by 71-12 percent.
The USA TODAY poll of 1,000 registered voters, taken Tuesday through Saturday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Haven Gillispie, 37, a sales representative from Jamestown, New York, hears conflicting reports on the impact of the bill.
“I don’t know exactly what’s in it,” she said in a follow-up phone interview. “But Trump is promising it’s going to help working families, so I’m relying on that.”