Dems aim for 2018 midterm boost from Trump tax plan fallout

Party hopes to win with working, middle classes

ATLANTA – A Democratic congressional candidate outside Philadelphia calls the Republican tax overhaul a “cynical bill” that will redistribute wealth upward.

One of her counterparts in California dismisses estimates of tax savings for most U.S. households and says the legislation is “just putting money in the pocket of the wealthy.” And in Kansas, a Democratic candidate for governor says it’s “a recipe for disaster” that previews inevitable cuts to popular programs like Social Security and Medicare.

While Republicans celebrate a massive tax overhaul they say will goose the economy and increase workers’ take-home pay up and down the income ladder, Democrats are aiming to turn the tax law into a cudgel in next year’s fight to retake control of Congress and to dent GOP advantages in statehouses.

Democrats hope to use the tax plan, passed without a single Democratic vote, to stake their ground as the party of middle-class and working-class America. They hope Republican efforts to gut the 2010 health care law and President Donald Trump’s unpopularity will help that cause.

“It’s all a consistent message: This is not what you were promised,” says Chrissy Houlahan, a Democratic candidate in the suburban Philadelphia district of Republican Rep. Ryan Costello, who voted for the tax plan. He is one of Democrats’ top GOP targets as they try to flip the 24 GOP-held seats necessary for a House majority.

Republicans acknowledge dismal polling for their approach but count on a turnaround in public opinion as tax cuts for many take effect.

A Wall-Street Journal/NBC News poll taken Dec. 13-15 found just 17 percent of respondents expect to pay less in taxes, while a third thought they’d pay more.

Indeed, the overhaul slashes the corporate rate from 35 to 21 percent, and adds generous deductions for certain types of businesses. Yet the plan also lowers individual rates and alters various deductions and credits. Results vary widely but the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center calculates that every income bracket will see gains in after-tax income, at least until some of provisions expire after 2025.

“When Americans see they have more in their paycheck, we think they’ll be appreciative,” says Corry Bliss, who runs a political advocacy organization and a separate political action committee backed by House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis.

Suburban Democrats like Houlahan particularly object to a new cap on deductions for state and local taxes, along with limits on mortgage interest deductions. One provision limits a household to a maximum deduction of $10,000 in state and local taxes, including property levies. Interest calculated on mortgage debt beyond $750,000 would not be deductible, down from the current $1 million cap.

Those changes fall disproportionately on the nation’s largest metro areas, where median incomes are often much higher than the national benchmark but where residents also have considerably higher housing costs and local tax burdens.

Such House districts feature prominently on Democrats’ target list in 2018. Several are now represented by Republicans who voted against the final tax bill, like House Appropriations Committee Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen, who represents New Jersey’s 11th congressional district. He cited the deductions cap in explaining his “no” vote.

Frelinghuysen’s potential general election opponent, Democrat Mikie Sherrill, said the congressman’s overall support for Ryan and the GOP agenda still makes him “complicit” in the tax legislation.