Stearns, Brewers step up to the plate on Darvish
Only the Milwaukee Brewers know just how deep they jumped into the Yu Darvish pool, but it was surprising nevertheless Sunday when reports surfaced that they had made an offer to one of the top pitchers on the freeagent market.
With the market frozen in an unprecedented ice age of inactivity by major-league clubs, perhaps the Brewers merely decided carpe diem was the proper course at this juncture. After all, Darvish is going to play somewhere in 2018 – and beyond – and if the price is right, why not Milwaukee?
Not knowing what other offers the 31-year-old Darvish has in hand – he does tweet about rumors and reports on occasion – there’s no way to know where the Brewers might stand in terms of acquiring his services. Figuring his price might be coming down as spring training nears, owner Mark Attanasio and general manager David Stearns might have put together what would have been considered a low-ball offer otherwise.
It is Stearns’ policy not to comment publicly on possible free-agent signings or trades, and he reiterated Monday morning that hasn’t changed. So, any reports of progress will have to come from outside the organization.
At the outset of the off-season, former Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta and Darvish, who split the 2017 season between Texas and the Los Angeles Dodgers, were the acknowledged al-
pha dogs among free-agent starting pitchers. Despite being in their early 30s, both were assumed to be seeking deals in the five- or six-year range with annual salaries of $25 million or more.
Given the fiscal restraints of the smallest media market in the majors, it is highly unlikely the Brewers made an offer of that magnitude. But, seeing an opportunity they couldn’t have forecast three months ago, is it unreasonable to think they floated a four-year deal at $20 million or so per year? That would still be a significant investment but the Brewers do have flexibility after gutting their payroll in 2015-’16 while embarking on a large-scale rebuilding plan.
The Brewers have only one significant contract remaining on their books. As part of a five-year, $105 million contract extension that began in 2016, leftfielder Ryan Braun has three seasons left and about $57 million yet to be paid. But some of that money is being deferred, including $4 million of his $19 million salary this year.
The next highest-paid player on the payroll is newly signed starting pitcher Jhoulys Chacin, who will make $8 million in 2018 as part of a two-year, $15.5 million deal. The Brewers have 13 players signed for the upcoming season at about $55 million.
The Brewers played last season with an actual player payroll of less than $60 million, the lowest of the 30 clubs. If they make no further additions of note before opening day, they will operate in that same neighborhood in 2018.
With baseball revenues at an all-time high and fan support in Milwaukee strong, the Brewers can afford to spend more on talent. In the past, when his team was positioned to win, Attanasio has shown a willingness to go higher than $100 million.
With that backdrop, it is still reasonable to ask how wise it is to make a substantial offer to a pitcher on the north side of age 30. Mention Jeff Suppan and Matt Garza to Brewers fans cringe. Suppan suffered slippage halfway through his four-year, $42 million deal and Garza never got traction with his four-year, $50 million contract, and Darvish’s annual take will be at twice those levels.
Darvish also comes with a medical red flag. He missed all of 2015 and half of 2016 while recovering from Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery and hasn’t been the consistently dominating pitcher he was beforehand.
Darvish did make the AL all-star team for the fourth time with Texas last season and was good enough for the already-potent Dodgers to trade for him for the playoff push. He was dreadful in two starts against Houston in the World Series, including an early Game 7 flameout, but a report surfaced afterward that he was tipping his pitches, a fixable flaw.
It was expected to take time for the Brewers to return to a competitive mode but after several astute moves by Stearns and under the leadership of manager Craig Counsell, the Brewers surprised the baseball world by winning 86 games in 2017, a jump of 13 victories.
That impressive showing still left the Brewers one win shy of the playoffs, and perhaps Attanasio and Stearns rued not making a midseason move for a starting pitcher such as Jose Quintana or Sonny Gray, who boosted the Cubs and Yankees, respectively. Perhaps they see this as their chance to reel in an established starter to keep the rebuilding process moving forward.
With Jimmy Nelson’s ETA for the 2018 season unknown while recovering from shoulder surgery, the Brewers certainly could use a high-end boost to the rotation. And, if they structure a deal to Darvish – or any other quality starter – in a way they can make it work financially going forward, it could pay big dividends on the field.
Stearns has remained disciplined in his methodical approach to rebuilding the Brewers but also is one to explore every possible opportunity to improve his club. There would be no casualties among top prospects in the Brewers' now highly regarded farm system.
Another factor is the softening of the competition in the NL Central. With Pittsburgh beginning a reboot by trading Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen, Cincinnati seemingly always regrouping and St. Louis coming off rare backto-back years without making the postseason, the Brewers remain in good position to again push the Cubs to the limits for the division crown. Having Darvish would narrow the gap further.
Darvish has a home in Dallas and is thought to want to remain in Texas, if the Rangers make an offer he considers acceptable. The Brewers might have merely been testing the free-agent waters to see if they could stay afloat in this unusually quiet winter. And the possibility exists that Darvish's representatives are using the offer as leverage in other negotiations.
What we do now is that Stearns and Co. have shown a willingness to think out of the box. We received further proof of that with their offer to Darvish.