Bucks face challenges after much-needed break
For the Milwaukee Bucks, the time for relaxation is over. That doesn’t just apply to the all-star break coming to a close, with the team getting back on the practice court Wednesday night.
At 32-25 and in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, the Bucks have a tough road over the final 25 games of the season, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. Friday against the East-leading Toronto Raptors at the Air Canada Centre.
To this point, the Bucks have somehow put themselves in the odd situations where they’ve simultaneously underwhelmed while also outstripping expectations. That statement bears explaining.
Milwaukee has an obviously talented roster, led by top-five MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo. That group has consistently expressed a goal of landing in the top half of the East. They’re not there yet but they’re also not far away, sitting just one game behind the fourth-place Washington Wizards — and 21⁄2 behind the Central Divisionleading Cleveland Cavaliers in third.
When it comes to exceeding expectations, that’s more of a numbers game. Through 57 games, the Bucks have allowed two more points to opponents
than they’ve scored (5,964-5,962).
Teams with that point differential aren’t expected to be seven games over .500. Among the top 18 teams in the league, the Bucks are one of two teams that does not have a positive point differential.
Figuring out who the Bucks really are — a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference or a team whose flaws are due to catch up to them — will be the story of the final stretch of the season.
Here are a few key challenges they'll face during the next seven weeks.
Tough schedule
Part of the reason the Bucks have the record they do is because of the schedule they’ve played. The Bucks are 20-6 against teams with records below .500 and just 12-19 against those at .500 or above — the fewest such wins among the top nine teams in the Eastern Conference.
They’ll have plenty of chances to raise that number, though, as the Bucks will face a formidable schedule the rest of the way. Fifteen of Milwaukee’s final 25 games are against teams that currently stand at .500 or above, not including a road game at Detroit on Feb. 28 by which point the 28-29 Pistons could certainly join that group.
Following an especially easy stretch in the schedule, the challenges will come quickly for the Bucks out of the break. Their first eight games, starting in Toronto and followed by home games against the New Orleans Pelicans and Washington Wizards, are against teams squarely in playoff contention, with the ninth-place Pistons, who are 11⁄2 games out of the playoffs, representing the only team outside the current bracket.
While there is a near-equal mix of home (12) and road (13) games remaining, they’re not evenly distributed. The Bucks will play six of their first nine games at the BMO Harris Bradley Center, then over an 11-game stretch lasting more than three weeks the Bucks play just three home games — all one-offs. Seven of their final 11 games will be played on the road.
Fool’s gold?
In the early weeks and months of the season, the Bucks had one of the worst defensive ratings in the league. As late as Christmas, opponents were making about 40% of their three-pointers.
As bad as that looked, it didn’t seem sustainable. At some point, things were likely to average out and teams — whether they were open or not — were going to start missing, especially from long range. Anything else would be both bad and incredibly unlucky.
That correction indeed came, correlating with the time head coach Jason Kidd was fired and replaced by Joe Prunty as well as with the Bucks’ easiest stretch in the schedule to date. During the past 12 games, in which Milwaukee went 9-3, the Bucks faced and beat eight teams that are under .500. The other win came at home against the Philadelphia 76ers, which were playing without all-star starter Joel Embiid.
Those nine wins featured a Bucks defense that certainly looked more engaged, did less trapping and blitzing and opted for more switches. It was a toneddown version of the same scheme Kidd ran and in those favorable matchups it worked, helping the Bucks go from near the bottom of the league to around average in defensive rating.
But that was against below-average competition. What matters most is what happens against playoff-caliber teams.
Getting healthy
The much earlier start to this season meant every team played more games than usual before the all-star break.
The break was a welcome respite for the Bucks, who have had their fair share of recent injury issues.
On Feb. 1, one night before Jabari Parker’s return from a torn left anterior cruciate ligament, Malcolm Brogdon partially tore his left quadriceps tendon during a game that fellow point guard Eric Bledsoe sat out due to left ankle soreness. Three days later, Matthew Dellavedova sprained his right ankle and John Henson injured his right hamstring.
Brogdon will be out until at least midto-late March. Dellavedova could be back by next week. Henson has missed four of the past five games.
On top of all of that, there still has not been an update on forward Mirza Teletovic. He underwent right knee surgery in November but has been indefinitely sidelined by pulmonary emboli that appeared during rehab in mid-December.