Loaded roster gives edge to MSU
Best Round of 64 matchup: Clemson-New Mexico State.Everyone loves the 5-12 matchups, but this could be an entertaining game because points could come at a premium; both teams got here with stellar defense. Clemson finished in a four-way tie for third place in the ACC (including a victory against North Carolina), but the Tigers’ ceiling lowered with senior forward Donte Grantham’s season-ending knee injury in late January; they haven’t been nearly as offensively potent without him. If New Mexico State’s Zach Lofton can get going from 3-point range, where he shoots almost 40 percent, he could keep the Aggies within range for a long time.
Potential upset: No. 11 seeds Arizona State and Syracuse were among the “last four in,” which is why they’ll meet in the First Four. But either — and this is especially true if Arizona State finds its way out of Dayton and heads to Detroit — showed the firepower (early in the season, anyway) to upend No. 6 TCU. Arizona State’s resume includes victories over No. 1 seeds Xavier and Kansas. Syracuse’s path forward seems more difficult, but led by Tyus Battle and Frank Howard, the Orange owns a win against Clemson and has Jim Boeheim’s trademark zone that causes issues if you haven’t see it. TCU, meanwhile, was very average in the second half of the season.
The sleeper: The debate over whether Oklahoma should have been in the field was legitimate — the Sooners lost eight of their last 10; after a first half with so much promise, their season spiraled into free fall. But go back and watch the early part of the season, when freshman phenom Trae Young was regularly drilling 3-pointers from the logo and the Sooners were regularly drilling opponents. Nothing in the last six weeks suggests Oklahoma will do it. But if the Sooners awaken — well, we’ve seen what they can do.
The winner: Michigan State. The temptation here is to pick No. 2 Duke, which features the most talented starting lineup in the entire 68-team field. Meanwhile, the No. 1 seed is not your typical Kansas team. These Jayhawks have very little depth and don’t have a lottery pick — and there’s also their dubious recent history in the NCAA Tournament. No. 3 Michigan State might be lurking a little under the radar (in part because the Big Ten Tournament was so long ago, it seems like it was played in late January). In sophomore Miles Bridges, the Spartans have a superstar who’s headed to the NBA lottery. But beyond Bridges, this team is loaded with a roster that could not only get to the Final Four, it could win it.