Donald Trump: Scott Walker’s only real opponent
In the past several months, Democratic campaigns against Gov. Scott Walker have featured a candidate breastfeeding her child in an online video, a candidate suggesting we rent the governor’s mansion out to the public as an Airbnb, and a candidate wistfully recalling Wisconsin’s greatness by citing the “advent of electricity.”
As Walker’s 17 Democratic challengers gasp for media coverage, their proposals are likely to get even weirder. Dane County candidate Mike McCabe has vowed to make Wisconsin the first state to derive all its energy from renewable sources. Milwaukee-based attorney Matt Flynn wants to unilaterally deem “assault” rifles illegal and order Wisconsinites that own them to destroy them.
The desire for the Dem candidates to stand out is understandable; few Wisconsinites would know any of them if they were standing in their living rooms. According to the recently-released Marquette University Law School Poll, State Superintendent Tony Evers leads the field of Walker challengers with only 18% of the primary vote — more than twice the support of second-place Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, who earned 9% in the poll.
The current leader in the Democratic primary is “I Don’t Know,” dominating the field at 44%. (The “I Don’t Know” campaign has yet to disclose its secret donors.)
Walker, on the other hand, is universally known throughout the state, and right where he needs to be heading into his 2018 election bid. The governor’s job approval number is at 47% — exactly where it was at the same time before his 2014 reelection, in which he beat Democratic challenger Mary Burke by five percentage points. (In the March 2014 poll, Burke’s “favorable” number was 19%, similar to Evers’ current 20% favorability rating, which is highest among current Democratic candidates.)
So while the current state of our national politics seems unprecedented, the fundamental state of Wisconsin politics suggest an election that may look very much like gubernatorial elections of the recent past.
But even though the early numbers look remarkably standard, there are reasons for Republicans to worry about all statewide candidates. Last month, the GOP lost a solidly Republican state Senate seat in western Wisconsin. Last week, Republicans lost a suburban Pittsburgh congressional seat that President Donald Trump carried in 2016 by over 20 percentage points.
The common denominator in all of these races is President Donald Trump. The president is creating competitive races where none existed. Even in special elections won by Republicans, GOP turnout has been down sharply.
Thus, as the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial carnival rolls from town to town, it appears Walker’s only serious opponent is Donald Trump.
Walker has to counteract the overwhelmingly negative coverage Trump has received by setting himself apart. It’s why, as governor, he has introduced some eye-popping new initiatives, from expanding health care to cutting taxes.
The baseline numbers suggest that if 2018 were like any other year, Scott Walker would steamroll another marginal Democratic opponent. But this year the GOP’s true opponent is one of its own.