Bucks’ playoff foe, top pick status unclear
The Milwaukee Bucks clinched their second successive trip to the playoffs on Wednesday when the Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Detroit Pistons. This marks the first time since 2000 and '01 that the Bucks have appeared in the postseason in consecutive seasons.
While their spot is secure, that's about all that has been decided. The Bucks can finish sixth, seventh or eighth in the Eastern Conference depending on how they fare in their final four regularseason games.
Here's a look at all the possible playoff scenarios, tiebreakers and how Milwaukee can keep its 2018 first-round pick, which could convey to the Phoenix Suns depending on where the Bucks finish in the standings.
Tiebreaker scenarios
The Bucks are currently in line to lose all tiebreakers between these three teams. Here's a closer look at why:
If the Bucks and Heat tie, the Bucks lose the tiebreaker by virtue of dropping the season series to the Heat, 3-0.
If the Bucks and Wizards tie for sixth (ahead of the Heat in eighth), the Bucks lose the tiebreaker. The Bucks and Wizards split the season series, 2-2, but Washington would gain the edge by virtue of winning the Southeast Division.
If the Bucks and Wizards tie for seventh (behind the Heat in sixth), the Bucks lose the tiebreaker by virtue of conference won-lost percentage. As of now, the Bucks are 25-23 (.521) vs. the Eastern Conference while the Wizards are 27-21 (.563).
If the Bucks, Heat and Wizards all tie, the Bucks would be slotted in the eighth spot. The Heat would be sixth as the Southeast Division winner thanks to their superior division record over compared to the Wizards. Regardless of winning their division, the Heat would win the second tiebreaker, which is winning percentage in games among the tied teams. Miami was 3-0 vs. Milwaukee and 2-2 vs. Washington for a total record of 5-2 (.714). Washington split both series for a total record of 4-4 (.500). The Bucks were 2-5 in those games (.286).
Theoretically, the Bucks, Heat and Wizards could all catch the Indiana Pacers (46-32) by winning out, while the Pacers lose their remaining four games. We'll tackle that scenario if it's still the case heading into the final game of the season.
Remaining games
Miami Heat: April 6 at New York Knicks, April 9 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, April 11 vs. Toronto Raptors.
Washington Wizards: April 5 at Cleveland Cavaliers, April 6 vs. Atlanta Hawks, April 10 vs. Boston Celtics, April 11 at Orlando Magic.
Milwaukee Bucks: April 5 vs. Brooklyn Nets, April 7 at New York Knicks, April 9 vs. Orlando Magic, April 11 at Philadelphia 76ers.
Possible playoff match-ups
If the Bucks finish eighth, they would likely face the Toronto Raptors. Toronto is three games ahead of second-place Boston with four games remaining.
If the Bucks finish seventh, they would likely face the Boston Celtics. Boston has a large enough lead where it cannot finish lower than second place in the East. However, the Celtics were dealt a major blow on Thursday when ESPN reported all-star Kyrie Irving will not return this season after having surgery on his left knee.
If the Bucks finish sixth, they will likely face either the Cleveland Cavaliers or Philadelphia 76ers. The Cavaliers and 76ers are tied at 48-30. If they remain tied, Cleveland is in line to win the tiebreaker as the Central Division champion. However, the Pacers, at two games back, still could mathematically pass the Cavaliers — and depending on what the 76ers do — jump into third. The Cavaliers and 76ers play Friday night in Philadelphia in a game that could decide who gets the No. 3 seed.
First-round draft pick status
In the November trade that brought Eric Bledsoe to Milwaukee and sent Greg Monroe to the Phoenix Suns, the Bucks included a protected first-round pick. That pick will stay with the Bucks if it falls between pick Nos. 1-10 (impossible now that Bucks have qualified for the playoffs) or Nos. 17-30. If the pick falls in the range of Nos. 11-16, it will convey to the Suns this summer.
Pick Nos. 1-14 are reserved for lottery teams that did not make the postseason. Playoff teams then follow with pick Nos. 15-30, going in order of the worst regular-season record to the best.
The only way to ensure the Bucks will keep their first-round pick is for them to finish sixth in the Eastern Conference. In that scenario, there will be two teams below Milwaukee in the standings, which would mean the Bucks' firstround draft pick will not be Nos. 15 or 16.
Thus, if the Bucks tie for sixth place in the East or finish seventh and tied with the eighth place team in the West, they would have a 50-50 shot at keeping their draft pick.
In the case of a tiebreaker to determine pick Nos. 16 and 17, the Bucks would "win" the tiebreaker by losing. In that situation, having their ping-pong ball come up first would mean being 16th in the draft and forfeiting their pick to Phoenix.
If Milwaukee keeps its pick in 2018, Phoenix will get it in 2019 if it falls between 4 and 16. In 2020, the Bucks' pick is only top-7 protected. If the Bucks keep their pick in each of those three seasons, it would become unprotected in 2021.