Brewers don’t mind picking lower in draft
When it comes to acquiring talent, it helps to be making selections at or near the top of the Major League Baseball draft.
But picking high in the draft also comes with this negative caveat: It means you stunk the previous year at the big-league level.
In that regard, the Milwaukee Brewers aren’t complaining that they don’t make a selection on June 4 until No. 21 in the first round. After picking fifth in 2016 and ninth in 2017, they dropped much lower on the basis of their surprisingly successful showing 86-76 last season (selections are made in reverse order of won-loss records).
Picking 21st also makes it all but impossible to know which player will remain atop the team’s draft board when that turn comes. For example, Auburn right-hander Casey Mize is considered the consensus No. 1 pick this year, which goes to Detroit, but after that no one is sure how the first round will play out.
“The farther down you are in the draft, there’s less predictability,” Brewers general manager David Stearns said. “You do your best, probably beginning about now, to identify who’s potentially going to be in play. But, inevitably, it’s going to change five times over the next three weeks.
“What’s especially important when you’re picking a little farther down is to have a process in place that you believe in. You have players who are appropriately ranked, and you’re prepared, regardless of who’s available, to make the selection that you feel most comfortable with.”
When the Brewers chose Louisville outfielder Corey Ray with the fifth pick in ’16, Stearns said the Brewers weren’t absolutely sure Ray still would be on the board. It wasn’t until Colorado chose high school right-hander Riley Pint at No. 4 that the Brewers knew Ray would be their man.
The same was true last June when the Brewers used the No. 9 pick to select second baseman Keston Hiura, a highly-coveted Keston Hiura was the Brewers’ first pick in the 2017 MLB draft. hitter from UC-Irvine. They weren’t certain what would happen just above them, where a pair of University of Virginia players, Pavin Smith and Adam Haseley, went seventh and eighth to Arizona and Philadephia, respectively.
“As much as there are predictions and educated guesses about who might go at the top of the draft, the truth is no one knows until the selection is made,” Stearns said. “Sometimes, it falls in line with conventional wisdom, and sometimes it doesn’t. So, we’re very careful not to zone in on one particular player, and keep our options open as much as we can.”
Though anything could happen with selections 2-20, the good news for the Brewers is this draft class appears to have depth, both at the college and high school levels. It projects to be top heavy with college selections, but there are many intriguing hitters and pitchers for the Brewers to consider.
“We do believe it’s a deep draft,” Stearn said. “I think there are different feelings as to what the strength is. Going into every draft in general, people love the high school talent. I think that is similar in this year’s draft. There are some good high-school arms; there are some good, athletic high-school position players.
“We do think there will be a talented player at No. 21. We think we’ll be able to select a good player. We are working hard to make sure we’re appropriately prepared. There’s talent throughout the draft. There will be talent at No. 21 and there will be talent later in the draft as well. It’s our job to be prepared and make the appropriate selections.”
It has been a good year to be an amateur scout in the Southeast, particular in Florida and Georgia. The University of Florida features three projected firstrounders – right-handers Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar, and third baseman Jonathan India. South Florida lefty Shane McClanahan should go in the first round as well as Stetson righty Logan Gilbert.
Florida prep players high on draft boards include right-handers Carter Stewart and Mason Denaberg, and outfielder Connor Scott. Beyond Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart, that state features prep stars Ethan Hankins, Kumar Rocker and Cole Wilcox, all pitchers, as well as catcher Anthony Seigler.
On the local front, outfielder Jerred Kelenic of Waukesha West High School is considered a sure-fire first-rounder. There has been speculation he could be the first top 10 pick directly out of the state of Wisconsin. Nekoosa’s Kevin Brandt went 11th to Minnesota in 1979, the last first-rounder until Kenosha Indian Trail’s Gavin Lux went 20th to the Dodgers in 2016.
Early mock drafts have linked the Brewers to Oregon State outfielder Trevor Larnach, a rising offensive performer. The line of thinking there is that the organization would be looking to restock some of the outfield depth they lost when sending Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison to Miami over the offseason in the Christian Yelich trade.
Stearns smiled when apprised of that speculation.
“We don’t think that way,” he said. “That does not play any part in our decision-making. We’re going to take the best player available. Drafting for need is not a good plan because you have no idea you’re your need is going to be when a particular player is ready for the major leagues.”
The Brewers will be missing one of their earlier picks because they forfeited their third-rounder to Kansas City by signing free agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain, who was made a qualifying offer by the Royals. Asked if it hurt to lose that pick, Stearns smiled again.
“You always want as many picks as you can get,” he said. “But every night we get to watch Lorenzo Cain roam center field and hit, I can’t say it’s going to hurt that much.”
Stearns is well aware of how volatile and unpredictable the MLB draft can be. He was assistant general manager in Houston during two of the three years the Astros held the No. 1 pick from 2012’14, an unprecedented development. Houston lined up first because they were dreadful for three consecutive seasons after stripping their roster in a major rebuild.
The Astros hit the jackpot in 2012 with shortstop Carlos Correa, who quickly rose to the majors as a budding star. But they swung and missed badly the next year by taking right-hander Mark Appel, a Houston native, instead of third baseman Kris Bryant, who went second to the Cubs. Appel fell apart in the minors, was later traded to Philadelphia and currently is taking a break from baseball.
In 2014, Houston made California prep lefty Brady Aiken the No. 1 pick but a physical exam revealed concerns with his elbow and the sides could not reach an agreement. Aiken later had Tommy John surgery and was taken 17th overall by Cleveland in the ’15 draft.
The good news for the Astros was they were awarded the No. 2 pick in ’15 for not signing Aiken and chose LSU’s Alex Bregman, who started at third base last year when they won their first World Series. So, it’s safe to say the franchise recovered nicely from the Appel/ Aiken missteps.
“The draft is a humbling endeavor,” Stearns said. “There’s a lot of projection involved. There’s a lot of hard work that goes into it but it’s still an unpredictable endeavor. You try to learn from what the industry has done well or poorly in the past.
“You try to learn from what we have done poorly or well in the past, and make the best decision we can at the time. You understand we’re not going to be perfect, and continue to try to get better.”