Outs are what count the most
Counsell isn’t fixated on pitch totals for starters
When it comes to pitch counts in this analytics-driven era of baseball, 90 is the new 100.
Actually, for many teams, including the Brewers, 80 often is the new 100.
For many years, 100 was the magic number for pitch counts with starting pitchers, particularly younger pitchers with great promise. When the starter got to 100 pitches, a reliever often was warmed up and ready to go, and the change was made.
That was before the number crunchers figured out, with rare exceptions, there was no future in allowing a starting pitcher to go a third time through the batting order. We’re not talking about the Justin Verlanders, Chris Sales or Clayton Kershaws of the baseball world here. This is general population stuff for a starting pitcher whose performance no longer revolves around pitch counts.
This pattern is more acute in the National League, where the pitcher is part of the batting order. In tight games, when a team has a budding rally and the pitcher’s spot comes up, a manager often pulls the plug and goes for offense, especially if he has confidence in his bullpen as Milwaukee Brewers skipper Craig Counsell has this season.
Such a situation occurred Tuesday night when the Brewers and Diamondbacks were locked in a 0-0 game in the bottom of the fifth at Miller Park. With a runner on first and two down, Counsell sent Tyler Saladino to bat for Jhoulys Chacín, who has been the club’s most reliable starter for several weeks and was working on a two-hit shutout, albeit with four walks.
Chacín had thrown only 86 pitches, and Counsell was asked if he was tempted to get another inning out of his starter.
“Let’s not get fixated on the number of pitches a guy is throwing,” Counsell said. “His spot was up. We’re trying to score. There are nights when we have the right guys available in the bullpen that I think it’s prudent to be a little more aggressive.
“He got us 15 outs on a night when we had a full arsenal in our bullpen.”
Emboldened by the best bullpen (2.46 ERA entering Saturday) in the major leagues, Counsell has made it clear that the number of outs is more important than the number of pitches in deciding when to remove his starter.
If he thinks his starting “out-getter” has gone far enough for his relief “outgetters” to reach 27 outs, Counsell does not hesitate to make a move and has done so with great success, for the most part.
“It’s kind of taking the outs and working backward,” Counsell explained. “If you work backward and you feel like you’ve got (relievers) to get outs and still be all right for tomorrow, then the move often makes sense.”
Asked if he has a pre-conceived notion entering a game as to how many outs he needs from his starter, depending on the state of the bullpen, Counsell said, “No, because the game changes that. The score changes it. What hitters are up changes it.
“I want the starter to get as many outs as he possibly can. More days off for the bullpen is still better. Less usage is still better.”
Nevertheless, through the Brewers’ first 52 games, on only three occasions were starters allowed to throw 100 pitches. Zach Davies did so in consecutive starts on April 7 against the Cubs (101 pitches) and April 13 against the New York Mets (103), though he covered only 4 innings in the latter outing at Citi Field.
Chacín was the only other starter to reach triple figures, throwing 102 pitches in six shutout innings against Miami in an 8-0 romp on April 20.
In those first 52 games, Brewers starters threw fewer than 90 pitches on 27 occasions. Only two pitchers went as far as seven innings, with Chase Anderson doing so in only 85 pitches in a 1-0 loss in Chicago on April 26 and Chacín getting that far on 96 pitches in a 2-1 loss in Arizona on May 15.
Including those two outings, Brewers starters made it through six innings only 15 times. Not surprisingly considering the way pitching trends have changed, Milwaukee was not far below other clubs in how deep into games starters were pitching.
Counsell made it clear that the starters’ pitch counts rarely, if ever, factor into his decisions to go to his bullpen.
“We’re just trying to take advantage of who our personnel are, as much as anything,” he said. “All of these other factors go into it – the score, game situations, state of the bullpen as far as who’s available and rested, and ready to pitch. It’s not the same every day. It can change daily. Then, we make decisions.
“We have several (relievers) that are pitching well, and if they’re rested, I think getting them the ball makes sense, especially in close games. If there’s a bigger lead, the score of the game might change that. That’s the methodology we’re operating under. It’s not about pitch counts, I’ll tell you that. It’s got nothing to do with pitch counts.”
The Brewers are averaging less than 5 innings per start, which might sound low to those who remember Mike Caldwell throwing 23 complete games in 1978, leading the American League. But the NL average is just over 5 innings, more evidence – if you needed it – that baseball has become a bullpen game.
In case you haven’t noticed, complete games have become fossils, requiring baseball archaeologists to unearth them. No NL staff had more than one entering the weekend, and only four had celebrated giving the bullpen an entire game of rest.
This is not a new trend for the Brewers. They had just one complete game in 2017 (Jimmy Nelson was allowed to throw 118 pitches, now practically unthinkable, in a 2-1 victory over San Diego), none in 2016 and one in 2015. The San Francisco Giants accumulated 10 complete games in ’16, a total we may never see in the NL again.
Brewers lefty Brent Suter is well aware of the growing trend of shorter outings for starters. In six of his nine starts, he has pitched exactly five innings, and never more than 5 innings.
“You always want to go as deep as you can,” said Suter, who added 15 pounds of muscle over the winter with hopes of increasing his endurance. “Pitch counts don’t really enter your mind when you go out there. I’ve averaged right around five innings, but I definitely want to go longer if I can.
“I know the game has changed. I don’t know if these trends are good or bad for the game. It’s just how it is. But you can’t argue the success of our bullpen. They are so good, it has become a five- or sixinning game for us. That gives us a big advantage.”
Indeed, it’s easier to pull the plug on your starting pitcher when you have a bullpen as fantastic as the Brewers’ has been this season. But you also wonder about the workload over the course of a full season. The Brewers rank third in the majors in relief innings (197 entering Saturday), accounting for 43% of the pitching staff’s total innings.
Only Cincinnati and Tampa Bay (in three fewer games) had covered more innings out of the bullpen, and their starting staffs have well-documented challenges. The Brewers also use their relievers for multiple innings more than other clubs, another trend worth monitoring.
But, thanks to the tremendous depth he has in his relief corps, allowing him to spread out assignments, Counsell says he is less worried about wearing out his pen than in 2017, when heavy usage took its toll at times.
“I feel a lot better about our bullpen now than I did last year,” he said. “I felt last year, at times, we were more in an overuse situation than this year.”
Which is never a concern for the starting pitchers.