Ticketsplitters could re-elect both Walker, Baldwin
In rare scenario, Democrat and GOP incumbents lead their races
A new poll showing both Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin leading their re-election races adds fuel to a tantalizing scenario Wisconsin hasn’t seen in 20 years.
Are there enough ticket-splitters left in this polarized state to produce a split outcome at the top of the ticket this fall?
Here’s how it could happen, based on a Wisconsin survey of 800 registered voters conducted by Charles Franklin of the Marquette Law School that was released Wednesday.
Republican Walker led 10 different Democrats for governor in the poll — by margins of 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 8, 9, 9, 11 and 13 points. (Two, Andy Gronik and Dana Wachs, have dropped out since the poll was released).
Democrat Baldwin led her two possible GOP opponents for senator (Leah Vukmir and Kevin Nicholson) by margins of 9 and 11 points.
A small but decisive cohort of voters in the poll “split their tickets,” making it possible for two incumbents in opposing parties to both come out on top.
How big is this group of ticket-splitters?
At a reporter’s request, Marquette provided a breakdown of their polling numbers to see how many people would divide their support for governor and U.S. senator if the election were held today.
For this analysis, we looked at Walker’s general election matchup against the best-known Democrat and leader in that party’s field, state schools Superintendent Tony Evers (a matchup Walker led 48% to 44%). And we compared how people would vote in a Walker-Evers race for governor with how they’d vote in the two potential Senate matchups: Baldwin vs. Nicholson and Baldwin vs. Vukmir.
The data showed that 16% of the people who chose Walker over Evers also chose Baldwin in at least one of her two Senate matchups.
And 15% of the people who chose Baldwin over Nicholson or Vukmir also chose Walker over Evers. (A smaller fraction of voters split their tickets the other way — against both Walker and Baldwin).
All told, these Walker-Baldwin “ticket-splitters” made up 8% of registered voters in the survey, taken June 13-17. That is similar to the share of voters in the
poll (7%) who said they had positive feelings about
both Walker and Baldwin.
Some people may be surprised there are any “ticket-splitters” left in Wisconsin. But this is actually a pretty tiny group of people we’re talking about, in keeping with the dramatic decline of ticket-splitting in this state in recent decades.
Back in 1988, 23% of Wisconsin voters split their tickets for president and senator, according to exit polls.
In 1998, 22% split their tickets for governor and senator.
In 2006, 16% split their tickets for senator and governor.
But by 2010, the share of ticket-splitters for the top two statewide contests was down to 7%.
It was a measly 6% in 2012 and 2016.
So there is little evidence in the Marquette poll that ticket-splitting is making some sort of comeback. These “Walker-Baldwin” voters are rare right now, and they may become rarer by the time November rolls around and the partisan lines in both contests have deepened.
But the poll does illustrate how even a small pool of ticket-splitters could produce a split outcome in the state’s big election contests.
Longtime Walker strategist Keith Gilkes jokingly referred to those ticket-splitters as “unicorns” earlier this year.
“They’ve kind of (had) this mythical unicorn status. They exist out there. I don’t know that I’ve necessarily seen one or met one, but I know they exist,” said Gilkes, noting that while their numbers are small they do still decide some elections.
The last time Wisconsin had a split outcome in its top statewide races was 1998, when it re-elected Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson and Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold on the same ballot. It has only happened one other time (1994) in nearly 50 years.
Through that lens, wins for both Walker and Baldwin would seem like a very odd outcome. And individually,
So there is little evidence in the Marquette poll that ticket-splitting is making some sort of comeback. These “Walker-Baldwin” voters are rare right now, and they may become rarer by the time November rolls around and the partisan lines in both contests have deepened.
each has vulnerabilities. Either incumbent could certainly lose. There is nothing magical about a Wisconsin polling lead in June (as Democrats Russ Feingold and Hillary Clinton can tell you), and the governor's leads against some low-profile Democrats in the field are pretty thin.
But both Walker and Baldwin enjoy the advantages of incumbency. And both are widely seen in the political world as the “favorites” in their races. Despite facing a tough election climate for his party, Walker enjoys a good economy, is an experienced campaigner and has a history of turning out his base. His favorability rating was middling in the new poll (49% viewed him favorably, 47% unfavorably), but those were his best numbers in several years.
Baldwin is the target of huge GOP spending and has only one statewide victory behind her compared to Walker’s three. But Republican strategists view her as a formidable opponent and history shows that senators in the “out-party” (the party that doesn’t occupy the White House) hardly ever lose. Her favorability rating was slightly worse than Walker’s in the new poll (41% viewed her favorably, 43% unfavorably) and her name recognition lower.
Are there enough Walker-Baldwin voters out there to keep both incumbents in office?
How many unicorns are there in Wisconsin?