Packers need to make bold move
Green Bay should swing deal for Oakland star Mack
GREEN BAY - The time is right for Brian Gutekunst to make a big, bold move.
The Green Bay Packers general manager has a Super Bowl contender as long as Aaron Rodgers is his quarterback. But Rodgers’ clock is ticking, and by chance, a premier defensive player just might be available to try to get the Packers over the top.
Khalil Mack’s contract negotiations with the Oakland Raiders are going nowhere, and his holdout has no end in sight.
So if the Raiders really are willing to deal
their all-pro outside linebacker, then Gutekunst should offer the two firstround draft picks he has for 2019 and hope it’s enough to get Mack.
Mack is the rare player who would be worth such a risk at this time. He’s an elite defender and 27 years old. With Rodgers at quarterback, Mack is the kind of difference maker on the other side of the ball who could give the Packers a good shot at winning a Lombardi Trophy or two over the next few years.
And holding New Orleans’ firstround draft pick in 2019, Gutekunst has the wherewithal to make it happen. What could be a better use of that pick than as part of a package to land one of the league’s best defensive players?
Maybe Gutekunst could get Mack for first- and second-round picks. Worth a shot. But if not, then he should offer his two first-rounders next year (or a firstrounder in ’19 and another in ’20) and see if the Raiders bite. It’s not too high a price. In fact, the question is whether that would be enough to get the Raiders to part with him.
Let’s start with the premise that Mack is a top-10 defensive player in the NFL.
In the last three years, his 361⁄2 sacks rank second in the league, behind only Chandler Jones’ 401⁄2. I recently asked several scouts around the league, and by best estimate he’s among the top six or seven defensive players in the game. He makes everyone around him better. He tilts the field.
Last year Mack appeared to have a down year with only 101⁄2 sacks. One scout, though, said Mack played well regardless of the numbers.
“Maybe (down) statistically,” the scout said, “but he was still affecting the QB.”
Put Mack at outside linebacker with the Packers’ defensive line, and there’s a good chance new coordinator Mike Pettine fields a top-10 defense.
Of course, recent reports that the Raiders might be willing to trade Mack raised the question, why? Teams rarely part with elite players in their primes.
Well, maybe they’re not serious and just fishing for a crazy-good deal.
But maybe trading Mack really is in play.
There are signs the Raiders might have miscalculated in their contract talks with Mack, and as one of the most cash-poor teams in the NFL — that’s why they’re moving to Las Vegas next year — would be stretching themselves financially to sign him to the long-term deal for which he’s holding out.
After negotiations on Mack’s extension went nowhere in February, the Raiders appear to have decided he’ll have to play this season on the fifth-year option of $13.86 million, and if necessary franchise him in 2019 and ’20.
But they might have underestimated Mack’s resolve. He has held out all offseason and training camp even though he’s subject to massive fines, including a game check for each preseason game he sits out. In Mack’s case, that’s $814,000 a week.
Maybe now the Raiders are convinced he’s willing to sit for a long time. Perhaps the whole season, or at least until the final seven weeks, which would allow him to become a free agent next spring (though subject to the franchise tag).
Maybe that worst case has opened the Raiders to trading him.
That leaves two points to consider. One, is Mack worth two first-round picks? And two, do the Packers have the cash and salary cap space to sign him, which is a prerequisite to making the trade, while being fiscally responsible? The answer to both is, in a word, yes. Chances are, both of the Packers’ first-rounders next year will be later in the first round. Same if it’s one firstrounder this year and another in 2019.
What are two mid-to-late firstrounders worth? There’s no exact value, it depends on the team doing the deal. But let’s use the 23rd and 26th picks to get a rough idea. If you go by the old Jimmy Johnson trade chart, those two packaged together are worth pick No. 7 or 8 overall. According to Rich Hill, who runs the website Pats Pulpit and calculated a new chart based on every trade of draft picks only since 2011, they’re worth the No. 5 or 6 pick.
Safe to say, the two picks combined are worth a top-10 selection, maybe top five if a quarterback still isn’t in play.
Is Mack worth that? Yes. He’s a premier player. It’s proven. Even with a topfive or top-10 pick, the chances of finding a player as good as or better than Mack are less than 50-50.
As for the contract, yes, the Packers are facing a whopper of a payout to Rodgers within the next year. But the cap isn’t the real concern for working out a deal with both him and Mack. There are plenty of ways to structure contracts to make that work.
The real issue is cash. And there, we can look to the Packers’ NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings for comparison.
Since the 2017 off-season, the Vikings have committed $206 million in full guarantees to major free agents and contract extensions. In that same time, the Packers have fully guaranteed $44 million on their major deals.
No doubt, Rodgers is going to cost big-time. The best guess is it will take $110 million in full guarantees to sign him.
Then there’s Mack. It’s safe to assume signing him will take a deal that makes him the highest-paid defensive player in the league, or very close to it.
For context, the highest full guarantee of any defensive player belongs to Jacksonville defensive tackle Marcell Dareus ($42.9 million), followed by Denver edge rusher Von Miller ($42 million). Miller is the highest-paid defensive player, on average, at $19 million a year.
So let’s assume Mack will command a deal a little better than Miller’s. Maybe a full guarantee of $45 million to $50 million, a practical guarantee in the $70 million range (money he’d get in the first few years of the contract, when he’s unlikely to get cut) and an average-peryear around $19 million to $20 million.
Only Mack and his agent know whether that would get a deal done.
But if so, why couldn’t the Packers make that work? With Rodgers, Mack and the $44 million they’ve already guaranteed in the last 11⁄2 years, they will have committed about $200 million guaranteed. That’s still a little less than the $206 million the Vikings have committed to free agents and extensions over the same time.
Look, nobody’s saying that trading for and signing Mack doesn’t come with real risk. It would be better if he were 25 or 26, not 27. And he could get hurt, miss a lot of games and maybe never be the same.
But this franchise is in business to compete for and win Super Bowls. Rodgers’ clock is ticking. This is exactly the time for a big, bold move.