Poll: Evers, Walker in toss-up; Baldwin still leads Vukmir

Strong majority excited about voting Nov. 6

Republican Gov. Scott Walker was in a virtual tie with Democrat Tony Evers while Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin held a 10-point lead over Republican Leah Vukmir, according to Wednesday’s Marquette University Law School Poll.

Among likely voters in the governor’s race, Walker had 47 percent, Evers had 46 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error — and Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson had 5 percent.

Last month, Evers had a 5-point lead.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Baldwin led Vukmir by 53 percent to 43 percent, maintaining a double-digit advantage.

The numbers suggest there would either be more ticket-splitting in Wisconsin this year than the state has seen over the past decade, or the gap between the two races would narrow before the Nov. 6 election.

In the race for attorney general, Republican incumbent Brad Schimel led Democat Josh Kaul, 47 percent to 43 percent.

And voters appear charged up to go to the polls. Seventy percent of Republicans and 76 percent of Democrats said they’re very enthusiastic about voting this year.

“I think we see a fair level of enthusiasm and excitement, something comparable to a high-turnout midterm election,” poll director Charles Franklin said.

“But we’re seeing real differences across the three statewide races, leaning solidly Democratic in the Senate, a close race for the governor and leaning a little bit Republican in the attorney general’s race.”

“This suggests whatever kind of wave may eventually arise by election day, at the moment it looks fairly evenly divided,” he added. “It’s not all going in a solidly Democratic or a solidly Republican direction.”

Walker was viewed favorably by 48 percent and unfavorably by 49 percent, compared with 41 percent favorable for Evers and 38 percent unfavorable.

Walker was strongest with white, male non-college graduates and had a

smaller lead among white males with college degrees, while Evers received strong backing from white, female college graduates and from non-white and Hispanic voters.

Evers had a 6-point lead among independents, down from a 20-point advantage he had last month.

Among registered voters, 48 percent approved of Walker’s job performance and 47 percent disapproved.

In the U.S. Senate race, Vukmir was viewed favorably by 30 percent and unfavorably by 43 percent, compared with Baldwin, who was viewed favorably by 49 percent and unfavorably by 42 percent.

Vukmir led by a wide margin among white, male non-college graduates while Baldwin led with white, female college and non-college graduates. Baldwin led Vukmir by 15 points among independents.

Marquette was in the field surveying voter attitudes Wednesday through Sunday, as the state and nation digested the final drama and aftermath of the confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Thirty-eight percent had a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh and 41 percent had an unfavorable opinion of the new justice.

Thirty-five percent had a favorable opinion of Christine Blasey Ford, who accused Kavanaugh of assault while they were in high school, while 35 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her. Kavanaugh has denied the accusation.

On Robert Mueller’s investigation of Russian meddling in the 2016 election, 31 percent have a great deal of confidence in the probe while 26 percent do not. Nineteen percent expressed some confidence and 13 percent said they had a little confidence in the investigation.

Fifty percent of registered voters would like to keep the Affordable Care Act and 44 percent would repeal the measure, known as Obamacare.

Seventy-eight percent said it was very important to require coverage for those patients with pre-existing conditions. Even among those who favor repeal of the Affordable Care Act, 65 percent said pre-existing conditions coverage was very important.

Thirty-four percent strongly favor a “Medicare-for-all” single-payer health plan, and another 15 percent somewhat favor the proposal. Eight percent are in opposition and 33 percent strongly oppose the proposal.

Forty-six percent of registered voters approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of his job, while 51 percent disapprove.

The survey of 1,000 Wisconsin registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, including 799 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points among those.

Including leaners, 47 percent were identified as Republican and 44 percent as Democrats.