Dems hope to flip Ryan seat, send message to GOP

Speaker is not running, but Democrat is underdog

The seat belonging to the most powerful member of the House of Representatives is up for grabs.

And while Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District may be markedly more Republican than the state as a whole, that hasn’t stopped Democratic candidate Randy Bryce from launching a multimillion-dollar effort to flip the seat occupied by House Speaker Paul Ryan.

Democrats hope replacing Ryan, a Janesville Republican who has represented the southeastern Wisconsin district for 20 years, with Bryce — a union ironworker, U.S. Army veteran and cancer survivor — would deliver a striking blow, and a clear message, to Republicans and President Donald Trump.

“What Democrats are hoping happens here is a repudiation of Republicanism in the age of Trump,” Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki said. “And districts like the 1st that have long been Republican, every single one of those where you can make enough inroads to knock out an incumbent Republican or take over a Republican-held district, is another example that Republicans have overreached. That they have lost touch with even their own voters, because they have become the party of Trump.”

Bryce got in the race over a year ago, in June 2017, with a viral campaign launch video in which he told Ryan, “You can come work the iron, and I’ll go to D.C.” Known as “Iron Stache,” Bryce quickly racked up endorsements from high-profile Democrats and celebrities, and has raked in more than $6 million in campaign contributions.

For months, Bryce campaigned as the man who could “repeal and replace” Ryan. The race clearly shifted in April, when Ryan announced he would retire at the end of his term.

Although Ryan is not seeking re-election, Bryce is still in many ways the underdog in his race against Republican attorney Bryan Steil, a former Ryan staffer and University of Wisconsin regent.

Ryan won re-election by 35 points in 2016. Trump won the district by 10 points that same year. Two years earlier, Gov. Scott Walker won the district by 18 points.

Bryce has also been the target of more than $2 million in attack ads by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC endorsed by Ryan and House GOP leaders. The ads have slammed Bryce over his nine arrests, including a 20-year-old arrest for drunken driving, and financial problems, which include late child support payments. One ad featured Bryce’s police officer brother criticizing him, another labeled him a “deadbeat.”

Bryce points to the ads as a sign that Republicans are running scared.

“What is surprising is how low they’ve gone, especially in this race. And I can’t help but wonder if it’s a fact that it’s Paul Ryan’s super PAC and he hand-picked somebody to take his place, and so he’s helping him out,” Bryce said. “Just the fact that they’re trying to tear me down personally, it’s just a really sad state of affairs in politics.”

Bryce, 53, said he thinks Republicans are spending big in the race because “they understand how symbolic it’s go-

ing to be for a working person” to take Ryan’s spot rather than his friend and former staffer.

But Steil, 37, insists he’s not merely a Ryan stand-in.

“I’m running as my own man,” Steil said. “I think what I bring to the table is unique.”

Steil, an attorney for the manufacturing company Charter NEX Films and a regent since 2016, is from a prominent Janesville GOP family. He has campaigned as a political outsider who would bring “Wisconsin-style solutions” to Washington.

Bryce, who lives in the Racine area, got heavily involved in politics during the 2011 protests over Gov. Scott Walker’s Act 10, which all but ended collective bargaining for the state’s public workers. He has run unsuccessfully for the state Assembly, state Senate, and for a seat on Racine’s school board.

Steil and Bryce have polar opposite positions on just about every issue.

While Steil supports repealing the Affordable Care Act, Bryce backs “Medicare for all.” Bryce supports gun control measures such as mandatory background checks, waiting periods and banning military-style weapons, but Steil says the existing laws should be enforced. Steil supports tighter border security, including building a new wall, while Bryce wants to abolish U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and backs paths to citizenship for immigrants brought to the country illegally as children.

State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) insisted that Steil is a better fit for the district, which includes farmland, cities such as Janesville, and some Milwaukee suburbs.

“I will say when the race began I was pretty nervous, because Randy Bryce had been running for almost a year,” Vos said. “I was nervous that a Republican might not be able to keep the district, which of course is a competitive seat. But as I’ve watched both candidates interact with voters and motivate people in the district, I’m now pretty confident Bryan Steil is going to win.”

Vos described Steil as “kind of a normal, everyday person from Wisconsin.”

“He’s not pretentious, he doesn’t walk around with a chip on his shoulder,” Vos said. “He certainly doesn’t come across as some kind of a rightwing ideologue where he’s got a laundry list of things that he wants to do to advance a right-wing agenda.”

But Zepecki said Steil has baggage of his own, saying many Wisconsin voters are fed up with Trump and Republican policies.

“They can pretend President Trump doesn’t exist all they want, but the reality is he defines the Republican Party and every single candidate running with an R after their name,” Zepecki said. “The continued inability to call out what everyone can see is behavior and actions unbecoming a president of the United States is something that is motivating voters this year. And not just Democrats, but independents and Republicans as well. And that’s why districts like the 1st are very much in play.”

That said, there’s a difference between “in play” and certain victory.

“I think Republicans are aware of the symbolic importance of this seat, and we’ve seen Congressional Leadership Fund, the big outside GOP group connected to the speaker, spend here to protect Bryan Steil against Randy Bryce,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “But this is not a seat that national Democrats are counting on to win the majority. Ultimately, the district is just fairly right of center, so even as an open seat you’d rather be the Republican here than the Democrat.”