Dan Bice on the election
Who were the winners and losers? One loser: Cheesehead revolution.
When the last vote was counted, which was early Wednesday, it was apparent who had won most of the contests.
But there are many winners and losers in addition to those who appear on the ballot. Here is our summary of some of those who came out on top in Tuesday’s elections as well as others who did not.
Winner: Charles Franklin
It’s not enough that Franklin’s Marquette University Law School Polls have become the gold standard for political surveys in the Badger State. But this time the unflappable political scientist told us last week that the race between Walker and Democratic foe Tony Evers was a dead heat at 47 percent each.
Indeed, it was. Evers eventually eked out a victory by 1.2 percent. This marked the third time that Franklin had all but nailed the results in a governor’s race. If only we could find an equally adept prognosticator for Packers scores or the weather, we’d all be set.
Loser: Cheesehead Revolution
Not so long ago we were all talking about the influence of Wisconsin’s holy GOP trinity of Walker, House Speaker Paul Ryan and former GOP Chairman Reince Priebus and their influence on state and national politics.
No more. If Evers’ victory stands, Walker will be out of office for the first time since 1993. Ryan is stepping down after 20 years in the House. And Priebus is on the lecture circuit after doing his duty as President Donald Trump’s chief of staff.
Loser: Milwaukee city election officials
It made for good drama when we found out at 11:30 p.m. Tuesday that the city was sitting on at least 45,000 outstanding early and absentee ballots. Evers claimed 84 percent of those votes, pushing him out in front.
But this delayed count adds a level of uncertainty to the process. What’s more, this is the second consecutive election in which this has happened with Milwaukee. We understand things were very busy at the polls and city officials lobbied the GOP-controlled Legislature unsuccessfully to let them count absentee ballots earlier.
But the question has to be asked: Why wasn’t this fixed after 2016?
Winner: City of Milwaukee
Over the past eight years, the city has been pummeled by Walker and the GOP-controlled Legislature. The Republican governor and Democratic Mayor Tom Barrett clashed on just about every issue, from a sales tax to fund public safety to shared revenue payments and issues around local control.
But city voters delivered in a big way for Evers. With more than 216,000 people casting ballots, Evers walked away with 78 percent of the vote in Milwaukee. The numbers were even greater in Milwaukee County. Those are things you don’t forget in politics.
Loser: Republican election reforms
Among the many changes to election law by GOP leaders in recent years was one to make it harder to get a recount. Now if the unofficial results hold, Walker may be kept from getting a recount by these reforms.
Equally notable, Walker criticized efforts by candidates to have a recount after the 2016 presidential election, which was won by Trump by 22,000 votes. According to the unofficial tally, Wisconsin’s second-term governor lost by more than 31,000 votes.
Winner: U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s coattails
It’s widely believed in Democratic circles that President Barack Obama helped drag Baldwin across the finish line in her tough match against former Gov. Tommy Thompson in 2012.
Her team got to return the favor this time. While rolling up a double-digit victory in her contest with Vukmir, she outperformed every other Democrat on the ballot. “It’s only appropriate that she got to help those who helped her,” said one top Dem.
Loser: State Sen. Jen Shilling
So much for a blue wave pushing the Democrats into power in the state Senate and placing Shilling in charge as majority leader.
As it turns out, the Democrats lost a seat to super conservative Republican candidate Andre Jacque in the 1st Senate District. And state Rep; Dale Kooyenga, thought to be in some trouble, eked out a victory by a 51 percent to 49 percent margin in Brookfield and Tosa.
Winner: Gerrymandering
How did the Republicans increase their firm grip on the Legislature while losing four statewide contests? There are many reasons, but it’s important to remember that Republicans gladly redrew the district lines after the 2010 census to help as many incumbents remain incumbents.
Guess what? It appears that every incumbent — Republican and Democrat — in the state Assembly won re-election. So much for throwing the bums out.
Loser: Vetters
Who exactly was responsible for doing the background check on Democratic congressional candidate Randy Bryce? Anybody?
Bryce came flying out of the box with a great launch ad. But it takes more than that to win a congressional seat. The Iron Stache, as he came to be known, spent his final months on the trail explaining his unpaid child support, OWI conviction and nine arrests. “I’m not perfect,” Bryce told voters. They agreed, choosing his opponent by 55 percent to 42 percent.
Winners: Democratic interest groups
A lot of groups you’ve never heard of had a hand in helping Democrats sweep the five statewide contests.
Run by former Russ Feingold campaign boss Tom Russell, Strong Wisconsin spent some $15 million in the governor’s race. The groups BLOC and MASH did everything they could to get African-Americans from Milwaukee out to the polls. The Wisconsin Working Families Party provided support on many fronts.
Impressive enough. But can they duplicate their efforts in the even more meaningful 2020 election?
Loser: House Speaker Paul Ryan
Worst job in D.C.: House minority leader. That and any job working directly for the president, which is what Ryan probably felt like he was doing for the past two years. So now he has been freed from both.
But Ryan is walking away from politics in the middle of the game, leaving the House in control of the Democrats. Yes, his team raised tens of millions of dollars, and Republicans held his seat. But there’s a reason CNN reported Tuesday that Trump was “really angry” at Ryan. Over what? A source said: “Everything.”