Still zoned in on TE Graham
Team needs more big plays from him in offense
Fourth in a series of nine position previews leading up to the Green Bay Packers’ 2019 training camp.
GREEN BAY – In one of his first major transactions as general manager, Brian Gutekunst went all in on the belief a once-dynamic tight end could keep his form past age 30.
He signed Jimmy Graham in the spring of 2018. To clear cap space, he released receiver Jordy Nelson, a favorite of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Given Nelson’s decline, his release wasn’t entirely bold. The three-year, $30 million contract the Green Bay Packers gave Graham certainly was.
Graham’s deal made him the NFL’s highest-paid tight end ($10 million annual average) entering his age-32 season. It’s the point in a career when many receiving targets blessed with explosive athleticism in their 20s begin to regress. On the surface, Graham appeared to be no different. He never stretched the field as he once did as a Pro Bowler in New Orleans and Seattle, nor developed into a red-zone threat.
This spring, Gutekunst faced another
decision. With Graham due a $5.3 million roster bonus, the Packers could release him, owe him no more money and take a dead cap hit ($7.3 million) that would’ve been only an additional $2 million. Or they could double down with the idea a new offense and a second year with Rodgers could boost Graham’s impact.
Gutekunst doubled down.
The Packers effectively chose a replay with their same tight end group from a year ago. Graham will headline the position, and he’ll be joined by fellow veteran Marcedes Lewis. Robert Tonyan remains a developmental project in his second year. The Packers drafted Jace Sternberger, but given the learning curve rookie tight ends face in the NFL, it would be a surprise if he had a big impact in his first season.
Success at this position depends largely on whether Gutekunst’s vision for what Graham can do in the Packers’ offense plays out on the field. He’s the longtime Pro Bowler who has shown he can perform at the highest level. Strictly from a productivity perspective, Graham’s numbers didn’t take a major hit from the previous season. He had 55 catches and 636 yards, two fewer catches and 116 more yards than in 2017. He also averaged 11.6 yards per reception, beneath the best averages from his prime but better than his 9.1-yard average in 2017.
No matter, Graham himself was left unimpressed. “My numbers suck,” he said late last season.
Graham’s impact on the offense as a whole must be greater to reward the Packers’ investment in him. He certainly expects as much.
Tight ends
Roster lock: Jimmy Graham.
Good bets: Jace Sternberger, Marcedes Lewis.
On the bubble: Robert Tonyan. Long shots: Pharoah McKever, Evan Baylis.
Biggest offseason move
The Packers drafted Sternberger in the third round, only the second time they’ve drafted a tight end in the first three rounds since taking Jermichael Finley in the third round of 2008. After a slow start, Sternberger transferred from Kansas to Texas A&M and flashed as a receiving target last season. He had 48 catches for 832 yards and 10 touchdowns as a junior and was selected firstteam All-SEC. Sternberger will needs to develop as a blocker, but he has significant long-term potential and can learn from two veterans.
Position battle
Tonyan was ahead of Sternberger this spring as the rookie adjusted to a new offense. Given a handful of firstteam reps, Tonyan got a chance to show what he can do with the starting offense. But the Packers didn’t use a thirdround pick on Sternberger to keep him stashed on the sideline. The team’s experience at tight end allows Sternberger to develop at his own pace, but if that pace happens to be quick, he’ll certainly be given every opportunity to scale the depth chart.
Keep an eye on
At age 35, Lewis isn’t expected to provide much as a receiver this season – and for good reason. Lewis was rarely a top receiving option early in his career, and the past few seasons have seen his production grind almost to a halt. He’s had 300 receiving yards in a season just once in the past five years, and last year Lewis caught just four passes for 39 yards. However, Lewis will be reunited with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett this fall. Hackett was Jacksonville’s offensive coordinator in 2016 and 2017, the latter year when Lewis caught 24 passes for 318 yards and five touchdowns. Given Lewis’ chops as a blocker, even a little productivity in the passing game could make him a serviceable No. 2 tight end.
Key question
We can safely presume the answer to whether Graham can become more athletic and explosive this year than last. That simply does not happen. The better question is whether Graham can reinvent himself. If he can, Graham could still make a significant impact on offense, if not a highest-paid-tight-endin-the-NFL impact. For that to happen, the biggest improvement from last season will have to be inside the red zone. Antonio Gates serves as a good example. The free-agent tight end remained productive for the Chargers long after his 40-yard-dash time waned, especially inside the red zone. From his age-30 to age-36 season, Gates had at least seven touchdowns in five of those seven seasons – a continuation of what he did in his 20s.
Prediction
Graham will catch more touchdown passes than last season. If he’s healthy, it’d be hard to not catch more than two. How about this: Graham will catch at least 10 touchdown tosses for the fifth time in his career. Even if he’s not as quick or explosive as he once was, Graham remains a huge target, standing 6-7. The Packers need to be better in the red zone than last year, and there’s no better way than letting Graham use his size to gain leverage in the end zone.