Turnaround, playoffs a tall order for LaFleur
Packers coach opens camp facing steep odds
GREEN BAY – History is not on Matt LaFleur’s side.
On the eve of his first training camp, the new Green Bay Packers coach wasn’t thinking much beyond Thursday’s practice plan and undoubtedly wasn’t contemplating the poor record NFL rookie coaches have had over the past decade, a period in which owners have seemingly changed coaches more often than they have changed vehicles.
During his pre-camp news conference Wednesday morning, LaFleur outlined his standards for 2019 but not his long-term expectations.
“I just think, I’m a little short-sighted, I guess, in some regards,” LaFleur said. “It’s taking it one day at a time. How can we get better each and every day, and along the way? Finding out exactly what our guys do well so we can keep showcasing that and do that to play to our strengths.”
Packers President and CEO Mark Murphy didn’t fire longtime coach Mike McCarthy in December and replace him with the 39-year-old LaFleur in January just for the sake of change. The Packers are coming off back-to-back losing seasons, the first time that has occurred since 1990-91, a period in franchise history that could be considered the Dark Ages.
He needs LaFleur to win right now. And not just win a little. The Packers need to get back to being a playoff team if they’re going to make anything out of the four or five years quarterback Aaron Rodgers may have remaining.
Unfortunately for LaFleur, success among first-time NFL head coaches in their inaugural year is rare.
Over the past 10 seasons, there have been 69 coaching changes and of them, 45 of the new hires had no experience as a head coach or interim head coach. The 45 combined for a 1.7-game improvement, but only 16 (35.5%) inherited a team with a losing record and turned it into a team with a winning record.
In that same period, 11 (24.4%) turned losing teams into playoff teams.
But here are the most meaningful numbers.
Only four of the 45 coaches won their division in their first year. Of the 11 who made it to the playoffs, only four won a playoff game.
San Francisco’s Jim Harbaugh was the only coach in that 10-year period
who made it past the divisional playoff round. His 2011 team went 13-3, won its division and a first-round bye and lost in the NFC championship game.
It’s hard enough to win in the NFL but having great success while installing a new system on at least one side of the ball and getting players to buy into what you’re selling is even harder. In many cases, the biggest challenge is changing a losing culture.
In that respect, LaFleur has some advantages over other new coaches. The Packers are three years removed from playing in the NFC championship game. Their 2017 season was marred by an injury to quarterback Aaron Rodgers that sidelined him for nine games, so there were extenuating circumstances.
McCarthy established a winning program over his 13 years with the franchise, so much so that the Packers were considered Super Bowl contenders almost every year. The team had a string of eight straight winning seasons, played in four NFC championship games and won a Super Bowl during McCarthy’s tenure.
The last two seasons may have affected the locker room but they haven’t wiped away the Super Bowl expectations many of the veterans have established.
LaFleur inherits a quarterback who hasn’t been as good as he once was but still would be taken over the current quarterback on all but a handful of teams. He also gets a defense that general manager Brian Gutekunst has stocked full of draft picks and free agents and is in its second season running coordinator Mike Pettine’s system.
It’s not quite the same as the 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan inheriting a 2-14 team with no quarterback prospect on the roster in 2017.
“I think we got a pretty good gauge,” LaFleur said of his team. “It’s interesting when you look at the offseason. You don’t face a whole lot of adversity. I think the toughest test is when you get into the season and you have some moments of adversity, and how you respond.
“I will tell you this — I feel confident about the character we have in that locker room and how those guys get along. I’m really excited for what’s to come.”
Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst speaks to shareholders at the annual meeting Wednesday.
There have been some changes. Gone are mainstays such as outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, defensive tackle Mike Daniels, receiver Randall Cobb, safety Kentrell Brice and cornerback Bashaud Breeland. Added were high-priced freeagent linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, free-agent guard Billy Turner, rookie pass rusher Rashan Gary and rookie safety Darnell Savage.
Young players such as receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown, cornerbacks Tony Brown and Josh Jackson, defensive tackle Montravius Adams and inside linebacker Oren Burks will attempt to fill some soft spots on the depth chart.
“This game is about the players, there’s no doubt,” LaFleur said.
An advantage LaFleur has going into this season is that he has been on the staff of first-year coaches each of the last two years. He joined rookie coach Sean McVay in 2017 when McVay was hired to coach the Los Angeles Rams and he served with Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel last year.
McVay and Vrabel are two of the head coaches who have won in their first year. McVay inherited a 4-12 team and went 11-5, winning the NFC West and playing in a wild-card playoff game. Vrabel inherited a 9-7 team and finished 9-7, competing for a playoff spot late into last season but coming up short.
“I just think that did afford me a really unique experience, especially two years in a row and really three out of the last four years (Atlanta’s Dan Quinn in 2015) being with first-time head coaches,” LaFleur said. “Hopefully, I’ve been through enough experiences with those other guys that nothing will catch you for a surprise.
“But this is the National Football League and I know that you can’t take anything for granted.”
As an NFL coach, LaFleur will have to show he can roll with the punches because nothing is static during a season. Injuries, up-and-down performances and roster changes all can affect the best-laid plans, so if LaFleur isn’t able to fix course when the season looks like it’s veering toward the shallows, he’ll be in trouble.
For now, the plan is in place and the focus is on the first practice. It’s time to find out whether LaFleur can beat the odds in his first year as Packers coach.