For MPS, a lot rides on likely referendum

I considered calling the referendum question that is likely to be on the ballot next April the Super Bowl of deciding the future of Milwaukee Public Schools, but I think that’s an overstatement. There are a lot of other factors shaping the future of MPS and Milwaukee education.

But the referendum would be a big deal. In 1993, MPS leaders went to voters seeking money for schools. They lost so badly that no one has wanted to try that again — until now. This definitely says something about the troubled current and future prospects for MPS.

A largely new and assertive School Board is laying the groundwork for the referendum, as described well in a story by Annysa Johnson in the Journal Sentinel several days ago. Let me add thoughts on why this is a big deal and whether MPS would win.

I heard an anecdote the other day about a family that was thinking of enrolling kids in a well-regarded MPS school. They changed their minds when they heard what class sizes were going to be. They’re enrolling in a private school with smaller classes.

Whatever you think of their decision, it illustrates a key problem for MPS — parents are choosing in large numbers to go elsewhere. At the time of the 1993 referendum, more than 90% of Milwaukee kids who were getting publicly-funded education were in the main body of MPS schools. (Some were going to suburban schools under the Chapter 220 voluntary integration program.) In 2018-’19, the percentage enrolled in MPS was 56%, with tens of thousands going to private schools (using vouchers), charter schools, or schools outside of Milwaukee (using open enrollment).

The decline is, in itself, a big issue for MPS, and reversing it a big priority.

Public school advocates are vocal in criticizing the other streams of schools. But if they want more kids to enroll in MPS, they need to make

schools within the system more attractive to parents.

Let’s be frank: A lot of MPS schools are not so attractive. It’s not only the large class sizes, it’s the relatively limited offerings in art, music and gym, the reduced number of adults in buildings, the school climate (including order and safety in some), and low-achievement.

Some steps are being taken to change this. New programs in some schools, improved recreational facilities, a bit more for arts, music and gym teachers. Bringing back a salary schedule for teachers after years without one was a big priority of the teacher’s union, and the school board did that in the new budget.

Supporters of MPS say it gets too little from the state and less per-student than some other districts. Critics say MPS gets about the state average and should do more with what it has. But, being realistic, neither revenue nor the way the system spends money is going to change that much.

So if MPS wants significantly more money to, say, hire enough teachers to reduce class sizes, the best option seems to be turning to Milwaukee voters.

As the strongly pro-union effort called “No Takeover of MPS!” put it in a tweet, “Politicians in Madison have starved Milwaukee Public School students long enough! If they won’t fund MPS then the people of Milwaukee will have to do it themselves.“

So will a referendum pass? No prediction here, but a few thoughts:

There’s a big reason for the School Board to aim for the April election. The Democratic presidential primary that day may lead to large turnout in the city (depending on the state of that race) and there will be other high-profile races on the ballot. High turnout would probably make passage more likely.

In 1993, older, middle-class white voters were especially opposed to giving MPS more money. There are fewer such voters in the city now, which might be favorable to passage.

Public opinion statewide, as shown in the Marquette Law School Poll (which I help with), has shifted in recent years toward more support for school spending. On the other hand, when the poll asked if people are satisfied with their local schools, opinion was generally positive statewide — except it was notably lower in the city of Milwaukee. Does dissatisfaction increase or decrease referendum support?

Convincing people to raise their property taxes is never easy. One reason MPS has stayed away from a referendum for so many years is the opinion that, especially in a city with high poverty, increasing taxes is bad.

It’s also hard to talk to people who don’t have school-age children into voting yes on school referendums. Only about a third of the households in Milwaukee include children 18 or younger, according to census data.

And there’s that factor so many kids in the city are going to schools outside of MPS. Will “what’s in it for my kids?” be a question some parents ask?

The most motivated group of pro-referendum voters presumably would be MPS employees. But, with the end of residency requirements, almost a quarter of MPS employees don’t live in the city and wouldn’t be allowed to vote. That’s hypothetically a couple thousand votes.

Last thought (for now): For MPS, win the referendum and there is some chance of turning more things in positive directions. But lose? Might that accelerate negative trends, especially enrollment? Both outcomes make an MPS referendum potentially a high-stakes matter.

It’s hard to talk people who don’t have schoolage children into voting yes on school referendums. And so many kids in the city are going to schools outside of MPS. Will “what’s in it for my kids?” be a question some parents ask?