Above-normal tropical storm season forecast
The AccuWeather 2020 hurricane forecast predicts a season of “above-normal” tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, according to the weather group’s forecast released this week.
AccuWeather predicted the hurricane season, which officially begins June 1, will bring 14 to 18 tropical storms, seven to nine of which could become hurricanes and two to four could strengthen into major hurricanes.
A “major hurricane” is classified by the National Hurricane Center as a storm with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, or a Category 3 storm or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The AccuWeather forecast comes after the 2019 hurricane season tied a 1969 record for the fourthmost active season in history, according to the forecasting service’s announcement.
Dan Kottlowksi, AccuWeather’s top hurricane expert, helped lead the team of meteorologists in their 2020 hurricane predictions.
“It’s going to be an above-normal season,” Kottlowski said in AccuWeather’s announcement. “On a normal year, we have around 12 storms, six hurricanes and roughly three major hurricanes.”
Forecasters at AccuWeather use “analog years” to compare current weather predictions to past hurricane seasons with similar conditions, according to the forecasting service. This year, meteorologists have studied 1980 and 2005 as their analog years.
In 1980, Hurricane Allen formed into a Category 5 storm and made landfall in Haiti before hitting lower Texas, according to AccuWeather’s report. And 2005, brought Hurricane Katrina, one of the most recognized Category 5 storms to hit the United States.
The 2019 hurricane season resulted in 18 storms that resulted in more than $11 billion in damage, according to AccuWeather.
On the Treasure Coast, local volunteers continue their efforts to help rebuild Marsh Harbour in the Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian made history as the strongest storm on record to make landfall in the northern part of the island chain.