Milwaukee Brewers preparing differently for unique MLB draft
Tod Johnson has a pretty good memory, but he had to think a bit when asked about the last time he scouted an amateur player in person.
“I guess it would have been on March 1,” said Johnson, the Milwaukee Brewers’ vice president of domestic scouting. “I saw a high school player on
Friday, Feb. 28, then a college game on Sunday, March 1. In between that, we had a pro workout day in
Phoenix.”
Shortly afterward, the entire sports world came to a halt due to concerns over the spread of coronavirus, which only got worse. Baseball games at the collegiate and high school levels were canceled, leaving scouts nowhere to scout, so they returned home.
That void set the stage for what will be a one-of-a-kind draft in Major League Baseball, scheduled for June 10-11. With big-league teams hemorrhaging money without game revenue, the decision was made to shorten the draft from 40 rounds, as in past years, to a mere five to keep spending to a minimum.
Instead of more than 1,200 players being selected, this year’s draft will see only 160 names called. And, with no amateur games to attend, scouting staffs have joined the rest of the business world by keeping in touch with players via Zoom meetings.
“A lot of things have happened that no
body thought they’d ever see,” said Johnson, who has been organizing the Brewers’ draft from his home in Elm Grove. “Add a five-round draft to that. We’ve spent over two months at home, not allowed to go to any games that don’t even exist anymore. It certainly changes things quite a bit.”
It’s common for draft prospects to move up and down the boards of teams in the weeks leading to the draft, some gaining helium with strong late-spring showings and others slipping with poor performances. This time around, teams have had to rely more on their depth of scouting, going on what they saw and heard prior to the pandemic changing everything.
“We’re continuing to gather information, whether it’s analytical data or statistical information or other data we use in our process,” Johnson said. “It shortens the window of what we had. We had way fewer scouting looks, and cross-over looks (by different scouts). We would have had a lot more information on college guys.
“But, in some ways, our access to players might have been better this year. Most years, college guys are still playing right now and their coaches are very protective of their time. So, getting access to them is limited. Right now, we’re able to do a Zoom call and talk to these kids.
“With high school guys, we’d (normally) have workouts and talk to them there. So, that hasn’t been happening. But we’ve been able to talk to players and get to know them a little better. That has been one positive change.”
When baseball was shut down, teams weren’t allowed to talk to eligible players or their representatives for about six weeks. But access was re-opened recently and Johnson said he and his staff have been Zooming their way into final preparations for the draft.
“For the most part, everyone has been open to doing it,” he said. “For them, it’s been nice to talk about baseball and what they’re continuing to do. Most of them are doing a good job of staying in shape and continuing to work out, as best they can, depending on the situation where they happen to be.”
Tennessee left-hander Garrett Crochet could still be on the board when the Brewers pick 20th.
Expect post-draft frenzy
Asked if prospective draft picks have been freaking out over the fact only 160 will be selected, Johnson said, “Every player is dealing with it a little bit differently. They’re not happy that their seasons ended (prematurely), especially high school seniors, and juniors and seniors in college trying to get drafted. Plus, finishing out their careers at that level (was halted).
“They’ve been processing all of that. They’re assessing what their options are, based on their school situations and desires to play pro ball and get their careers started. And how this affects them if they are drafted. That’s a question we can’t answer right now. So, there’s some uncertainty and unease, wondering how this is going to play out.”
What’s going to happen to the rest of the draft-eligible players with dreams of pro careers? After two “quiet” days following the draft, teams will be allowed to sign players for a mere $20,000, a tremendous bargain for teams if any make it to the majors.
Teams are pinching pennies during the pandemic but that period has the potential to be something of a free-for-all as teams shop in baseball’s Dollar Store. The Houston Astros, who forfeited their first two picks as part of their sign-stealing penalty, certainly would have interest in adding players at $20,000 a pop, but so will teams with the resources despite the game’s shutdown.
As for any possible shenanigans during that time, Johnson said, “MLB has made it very clear in their communications that any sort of illegal or unallowed (additional) inducements are going to be strictly prohibited, and policed as aggressively as they can. The penalties they’ve put in place are going to be pretty aggressive, we’ve been told.
“We know teams are aggressive in trying to get better and gain competitive advantages, so there’s the possibility of some activity that would not be allowed. So, they plan to do whatever they can to make sure it doesn’t become the Wild West.”
To help teams spread out signing bonuses during these tough financial times, an agreement was struck with the players union in which each draft pick would receive only $100,000 up front, with 50% of the remaining money paid in 2021 and the remainder in 2022.
College pool is deep
Because they posted the 11th-best record (89-73) in the majors during their 2019 wild-card season, the Brewers will pick 20th in the first round. They originally had six selections in the first five rounds but traded their Competitive Balance Round B pick (No. 64) at the end of the second round to the Seattle Mariners over the winter as part of the deal for catcher Omar Narváez.
The first round is expected to be dominated by college players, in part because of the talent level but also because they have less leverage with teams looking to save some money. The Brewers, who took a college pitcher, Mississippi State lefty Ethan Small, in the first round in 2019, might do so again.
“I think, in particular, this draft is pretty deep in college pitching,” Johnson confirmed. “There’s a good number of college hitters as well. So, I do think the trend toward college will likely continue. There is a good crop of high school pitchers as well.
“I do think it’s a good draft, definitely above-average in my opinion. I don’t know if it’s a ‘super’ draft. But, in all four of the quadrants, there’s pretty good quality. Even with the shortened year, there is a lot of data out there on these (college) guys.”
The Brewers have been linked to University of Georgia right-hander Cole Wilcox in some mock drafts but other college pitchers of note could still be on the board when they pick, including Tennessee lefthander Garrett Crochet, Oklahoma righthander Cade Cavalli, South Carolina righty Carmen Mlodzinski, Louisville righty Bobby Miller and a pair of Miami right-handers, Slade Cecconi and Chris McMahon.
Despite having only five selections and being more budget-conscious than ever, the Brewers will continue their philosophy of selecting the best players on their draft boards when their turn comes, according to Johnson.
“We’ll still follow our same process,” he said. “There’s a strategic component to spending your money in a 10-round draft or 40-round draft with the pools you’re given. That certainly changes with the five rounds and the $20K guys afterward. The draft mechanics from a (bonus) pool perspective are still the same, except only over five rounds.”