Brewers are drafting their strategy
Team will have quality choices with 20th pick
Not knowing exactly how the Major League Baseball draft will go in the 19 selections before their first-round pick Wednesday evening at No. 20, the Milwaukee Brewers still figure to come away with a very nice player.
“I don’t ever like to use the word ‘guarantee’ relative to the draft (but) we are excited about a number of players who will be available at pick No. 20 this year,” Brewers vice president of domestic scouting Tod Johnson said.
The bad news is the draft has been shortened from the usual 40 rounds to a mere five in a cost-cutting measure with the game shut down by the COVID-19 pandemic. The good news is it is considered one of the better drafts in recent years in terms of players who could make an impact in the big leagues.
This draft is particularly deep in college pitching, leading to the possibility that the Brewers will go that route in the first round for the second consecutive year. Last June, they tabbed Mississippi State left-hander Ethan Small with the 28th pick overall.
Some of the best college pitchers are expected to be long gone by the time the Brewers go on the clock, including Texas A&M left-hander Asa Lacy, Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock, Minnesota righty Max Meyer, Louisville lefty Reid Detmers, Oklahoma righty Cade Cavalli and Tennessee lefty Garrett Crochet.
That still leaves Georgia right-hander Cole Wilcox, Auburn righty Tanner Burns, Miami righty Slade Cecconi, Duke right-hander Bryce Jarvis and South Carolina righty Carmen Mlodzinski among the college arms who could be there for the taking for the Brewers.
Under president of baseball operations David Stearns, the Brewers have shown a distinct liking for up-the-middle bats, leading to the first-round picks of centerfielder Corey Ray (2016), second baseman Keston Hiura (2017) and shortstop Brice Turang (2018). There are
some interesting possibilities in that realm who could tempt the Brewers, such as prep shortstop Ed Howard, prep outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and prep catcher Tyler Soderstrom, as well as collegiate middle infielders Nick Loftin (Baylor) and Justin Foscue (Mississippi State).
One interesting power bat projected to go in the second half of the first round is North Carolina first baseman Aaron Sabato, a right-handed slugger who compiled a freshman-record 18 homers for the Tar Heels. Sabato played in 19 games this year before the season was stopped and popped seven homers, with six doubles and a .708 slugging percentage.
Another intriguing college bat is UCLA centerfielder Garrett Mitchell, a speedster with great defensive skills and offensive upside but with questions about consistency and also durability while playing with Type 1 diabetes. The "toolsy" Mitchell is not expected to make it to the No. 20 spot, however.
This draft also is deep in quality college catching, beginning with North Carolina State’s Patrick Bailey, followed by Ohio State’s Dillon Dingler and Arizona’s Austin Wells. The Brewers have two young catching prospects they like in Mario Feliciano and Payton Henry but could be tempted to add another to the mix.
“There are a number of college catchers that are very interesting and could be potentially available at No. 20,” Johnson said. “We’ll have to see how the board falls.”
One of the more interesting players who could still be available when the Brewers pick, and perhaps the riskiest, is high school right-hander Nick Bitsko, who didn’t throw a pitch this year before his season was shut down by the pandemic. Bitsko has circulated videos for scouts to see showing a high 90s fastball and sharp-breaking curveball, with command and clean delivery that portend a high upside.
Bitsko has committed to Virginia, and as with all prep players, has that to use as leverage in negotiating a signing bonus. With only five rounds, “signability” is more important than ever for teams who would not want to see a top pick slip away.
The Brewers have a signing bonus pool of just over $6 million for the five rounds, including a $3,242,900 slot value for the No. 20 pick. They also will make picks No. 53, 92, 121 and 151 out of the 160 selections. The Brewers traded their Competitive Balance Round B selection (No. 64) to Seattle over the offseason in the deal for catcher Omar Narváez.
“All draft picks carry a certain level of risk that we have to balance with the potential reward that comes with them,” Johnson said. “’Signability’ is always hugely important. This year, it is a bit of an unknown as to how it will impact the draft, especially in Rounds 3-5.
“We will take the best guy available at each slot, pitcher or hitter.”
With the college and high school seasons shut down in late March by the pandemic, the Brewers have done much of their draft preparation via thorough scrutiny of videos compiled of the players, as well as Zoom sessions with scouts and possible draft picks.
“It’s certainly been a different type of preparation,” Stearns said. “We’ve done all of our meetings virtually. Everyone’s in their own living rooms or dining rooms or kitchens or studies. We’re on Zoom a lot. But we’ve had the same level of discussion and debate, back and forth.
“It’s been great to see the faces of our scouts all over the country. I think everyone’s been dying to talk baseball and the opportunity to do that has been welcomed by all of us. We’ll be prepared but the nature of the discussions and proximity of those discussions have changed a little bit.
“The good news is we have pretty extensive histories on all these players. So, while we’ve had limited access watching them during the spring season of their draft-eligible years, we’ve been tracking most of these players for multiple years. We have performance data on them and scouting evaluations of them for many years. So, we have a pretty robust information set.”
Normally, the Brewers would have about 40 or so members of the draft “team” gathered together at Miller Park to make their selections. They’ve arranged for a much smaller group, led by Johnson, to gather there with social distancing emphasized, with the rest of the gang contributing via Zoom from their homes.
“It alleviates some of our concerns about internet or power interruptions if we were all at home,” Johnson said. “It will be a challenge ensuring we get communications seamlessly between those that contribute information to the decision process. We will do some dry runs to be sure that works for us.”
The first round and Competitive Balance Round A (37 picks total) will take place Wednesday night, beginning at 6 p.m. CDT, and televised on the MLB Network and ESPN. The rest of the draft will be conducted Thursday, beginning at 4 p.m.
By virtue of having the worst majorleague record in 2019, the Detroit Tigers have the first overall selection and are expected to pick Arizona State first baseman first baseman Spencer Torkelson, considered the best bat in the draft. Next up are the Baltimore Orioles, thought to be heavily considering Vanderbilt outfielder Austin Martin.