Democrats are taking ‘nothing for granted’
Biden has big lead, but party still haunted by defeat in 2016
WASHINGTON – Democrats have heard this story before.
Their standard-bearer builds a sizable lead in the race for president against Donald Trump. Everything seems pointed in their direction. Pundits start talking about a Democratic victory like it’s inevitable.
Then it doesn’t happen.
Still licking their wounds four years after Hillary Clinton’s stinging loss, Democrats are grappling with heightened expectations that didn’t seem possible at the start of the year. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden cruised to a double-digit lead nationally weeks ago and has stayed there, as President Donald Trump takes a pounding over his handling of the coronavirus crisis, high unemployment and the fallout from nationwide protests over police brutality.
Not only does Biden lead polls in every battleground state, but the former vice president also is either ahead or competitive in states that the GOP must carry, including Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Missouri.
But Democrats are not able to shake off their painful memories of 2016, when many falsely assumed Trump’s nomination would ensure a Clinton victory in November.
“That memory can’t be erased,” said Luis Heredia, executive director of the Arizona Education Association, the state’s teachers union, and a Democratic National Committee member. “You remind people that a poll is just a poll. It’s a moment in time on Tuesday morning when somebody answered a call. Let’s not get carried away.”
In interviews with DNC members from six battleground states, including state party leaders, each came back to an old campaign cliché: “Take nothing for granted.”
There is a major warning sign, however, for Democrats: Despite Biden’s sizable lead, his supporters are significantly less enthusiastic about him than Trump’s loyalists are of Trump, polling showed.
There are also four months still left before the election, enough time for the race to upend yet again.
Trump’s victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania proved fatal for Clinton in 2016. Winning back the Rust Belt is key for Biden, who holds a polling lead of 6 percentage points or greater in each, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls.
Biden leads Trump nationally 53% to 41%, according to a new USA TODAY/ Suffolk University poll, and holds a 9.4% lead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.
At this juncture in 2016, Clinton’s advantage over Trump was smaller, 46% to 40% in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll. In the Real Clear Politics average of polls on July 1, 2016, Clinton led by 4.8%.
Although it became increasingly popular to slam the accuracy of polling after Trump won in an upset, Clinton’s final lead in the popular vote, 48.2% to 46.1%, closely matched final polls. Trump’s edge in the electoral college came from close victories in swing states.
Biden downplayed his lead during his first news conference since April following a speech last week in Wilmington, Delaware.
“So far, it remains to be seen. I don’t want to jinx myself. I know the polling data is very good. But I think it’s really early. It’s much too early to make any judgment,” Biden said.
During a conference call with reporters, Trump communications director Tim Murtaugh threw the gauntlet at Biden.
He slammed Biden for not denouncing the recent tear-downs of monuments, called him a “disaster” on the economy, questioned Biden’s ties to China and argued that the Obama-Biden administration’s handling of the H1N1 pandemic left Trump with a shortage of N95 masks.
Comparing the 2020 and 2016 elections, Robby Mook, Clinton’s 2016 campaign manager, said last week: “I almost look at it as: Is there very much that’s the same?”
He was appearing on the podcast of David Plouffe, Barack Obama’s former campaign manager.
“First and foremost, I’d say COVID has changed everything.”
Kevin Evans, a DNC member from Florida, said he knows many “nonpartisan people” in Broward County who voted for Trump because they couldn’t back Clinton but plan to vote for Biden in November. He said the president’s handling of the pandemic was the last straw.
“That’s making the difference. That’s what’s going to bring out the vote,” Evans said.
When it comes to Biden being ahead in polls, though, Evans returned to four years ago.
“So was Hillary, right?” he said.