Rookie Dillon is help for Rodgers
GREEN BAY - We’ll soon find out whether the Green Bay Packers can do for Aaron Rodgers what the Denver Broncos did for John Elway.
Late in Elway’s career, you might remember, Broncos coach Mike Shanahan built his offense around Terrell Davis and the outside-zone run scheme. In Elway’s final three seasons, when he was between the ages of 36 and 38, the Broncos went 39-9 and won two Super Bowls.
Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur, the Packers’ general manager and coach, are trying to do the same for the 36-year-old Rodgers. Instead of drafting to get more explosive at receiver, where they have an obvious roster shortcoming, they doubled down on LaFleur’s wide-zone scheme by selecting a running back (AJ Dillon) in the second round and a scheme-specific H-back (Josiah Deguara) in the third. They didn’t draft a receiver.
It certainly wasn’t what Rodgers expected heading into the draft. He has freely admitted that when Gutekunst traded up in the first round, he assumed it was for a wideout. It’s hardly a leap to think he would have preferred an earlyround receiver, too, as he hinted with a neutral answer on the subject this week.
“It really doesn’t matter what I would have preferred or not,” Rodgers said. “What matters is the guys that we have in camp right now and trying to get on the same page. I think if anything it says they have a lot of confidence in guys like Allen Lazard, Marquez (Valdes-Scantling), (Equanimeous St. Brown) coming back from injury and Jake (Kumerow) — the guys expecting jumps in Years 2 and 3.”
The plan is hardly crazy, at least based on Elway’s late years and the 49ers’ recent success with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Also, courtesy of Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com, based on Rodgers’ QBR when Aaron Jones was on the field last season (67.7) and when he wasn’t (28.7).
Almost two weeks into camp, the Packers’ offense more than ever looks like Kyle Shanahan’s play-action widezone scheme in San Francisco. Talk of marrying the run game to the pass has been all the rage in interviews with Packers players and coaches.
But as much depends on Gutekunst’s scouting of Dillon and Deguara as on LaFleur’s skills in teaching and calling plays in the outside-zone scheme.
As for all the pundit and fan complaints about Gutekunst and LaFleur not drafting an explosive receiver for Rodgers, well, if you’re talking about immediate impact from a rookie class, chances are better you’ll get it in the run game than from a wideout.
Not that a rookie receiver can’t make a difference — just last season San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel and Seattle’s DK Metcalf, both second-round picks, were big contributors to playoff teams.
But over the last five years, 15 rookie running backs have gained more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage, whereas only three rookie receivers have done the same. To put that in context, in the league overall last year those numbers were about even — 25 backs and 26 receivers topped 1,000 yards. It’s just easier to play early at running back than receiver in this league.
Not that the Packers need 1,000 yards from Dillon. What they need is for their offense not to crater when Jones isn’t on the field as a big threat in both the running and passing games. Assuming they keep Jones at the 60 percent snap rate he played last season — with his injury history, they should if they want him healthy and on the field in January — then Dillon need be only a part-time player.
But will he be ready to play, say, onequarter or one-third of the Packers’ snaps on offense in a year when the offseason program was canceled? That’s not yet obvious 11⁄2 weeks into training camp, unlike in Kansas City, where Peter King of NBC Sports reported that first-round back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been turning heads while on the fast track to starting for the defending Super Bowl champs.
Dillon, picked 30 spots (No. 62 overall) after Edwards-Helaire, still has some work to do just to surpass last year’s No. 2, Jamaal Williams.
Dillon, to be sure, is a huge back (247 pounds) with good speed (4.53 40). That’s comparable to last year’s NFL rushing leader, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry (247 pounds, 4.54).
Whether Dillon is a good ball carrier, well, it’s almost impossible to tell from camp practices, where there’s rarely tackling. The truth is, running backs reveal themselves only in repeated live action.
Nobody, for instance, had a clue what was to come in Jones’ rookie camp three years ago even with four preseason games. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have been a healthy scratch in the regularseason opener as a rookie. It wasn’t until his eye-catching running against Chicago and Dallas in Weeks 4 and 5 that we saw what might be.
In what has been typical for him so far, Dillon in practice at Lambeau Field on Tuesday showed good vision with an immediate cutback on one inside run that probably would have been a big gainer. But he also ran into traffic on several wide-zone runs, and only with real tackling will we know whether he’ll power his way to extra yards on those carries.
The passing game is the bigger issue because to get on the field much he’ll have to earn the trust of Rodgers and LaFleur as a receiver and blocker.
Though he caught only 21 passes in three years as a starter at Boston College, his hands have looked fine so far — he caught two passes at full speed down the middle seam for big plays the first week of camp, though Tuesday he also had his first easy drop in team drills, on a checkdown.
Pass blocking is where he most obviously has to get better, and fast. He has struggled in one-on-one blitz work — rookie linebacker Kamal Martin whipped him twice in one practice last week. He was a little better Tuesday going 1-1 against Oren Burks.
LaFleur also needs immediate help from his hand-picked H-back, Deguara, a scheme-specific pick if there ever was one. The third-rounder figures to get his share of playing time as combo fullback/tight end, and the tight end position as a whole will be more prominent in Year 2 with a group that also includes one run-blocking specialist (Marcedes Lewis) and two young pass catchers (Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger).
“We’ll be looking at that the next couple of weeks, what packages seem to fit best with our personnel,” Rodgers said. “But I would expect there would be a good amount of (two tight ends) just based on the talent we have at that position.”
Yes, it’s a new era for an old quarterback in Green Bay, just as it was in Denver about 25 years ago.