Packers playmaker Aaron Jones shows why he’s worth risk of a new contract
GREEN BAY – This is why the Green Bay Packers should pay Aaron Jones.
The fourth-year running back is in the last year of his contract and showed in the Packers’ blowout 42-21 win over Detroit on Sunday why he’s more than just another good back in the NFL.
He put up a career-high 236 yards in total offense Sunday, but more than just the numbers, it’s his ability to make plays as both a runner and receiver that make him worth a contract extension. His 75-yard touchdown run on the first snap of the second half and his leaping 30-yard catch along the sideline a little later in the third quarter were just the latest examples of the way he threatens NFL defenses.
A lot of the analytics say teams shouldn’t pay running backs because they get hurt too often, decline too fast and are easily replaced by good, cheaper players on rookie contracts. There’s a lot of truth to that, too. Most backs in this league, even good ones, aren’t that hard to replace. There’s a lot of talent out there in college.
Yet, the New Orleans Saints (Alvin Kamara) and Minnesota Vikings (Dalvin Cook) recently gave their best running back a big pay day, and for good reason. A top-10 back who’s a real threat as both a runner and receiver is worth it.
Jones is that kind of player, and they’re still rare.
“He’s such a talented guy,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said, “does so many things for our offense.”
Let’s start with what a big pay day for a running back actually means these days. When Kamara and Cook signed their deals the day before last week’s NFL openers, the headlines were, let’s just say, misleading. Kamara’s deal was reportedly worth $15 million a year, and Cook’s $12.5 million. If that’s really what those deals were worth, then yeah, the Packers would have to think twice.
But teams know the risks of signing running backs, and so do running backs. So the cost isn’t what those numbers say. That’s just funny money, “new money” as it’s called in the business.
The details of the deals came in last week, and in reality, Kamara and Cook, who like Jones are in their fourth NFL season, are going to make roughly $10 million a year. The numbers that matter are these:
Kamara received $22.8 million fully guaranteed, so if he gets cut tomorrow because the Saints think he’s no longer
Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) does a Lambeau Leap to empty stands after scoring a touchdown against the Detroit Lions on Sunday at Lambeau Field in Green Bay.
good or healthy or whatever, he’ll make $22.8 million. In the first three years of his deal he’ll make $29.3 million. In the first four, $40.33.
That’s roughly $10 million a year. Or $11.4 million if the Saints move on after next season.
Cook’s guarantee was $26 million. In the first three years he’ll make $27.325 million. In the first four, $38.325 million.
That’s a little less than $10 million a year. Or, $13 million a year if the Vikings move on after next season.
At a price in that neighborhood, the Packers should find a way to work something out with Jones. He knows his value to the team but also knows his injury history. A deal in the next few weeks would move his injury risk for the rest of the season from him to the Packers. Hard not to think something around $20 million guaranteed, and a $9 million to $10 million average wouldn’t get the deal done.
If I’m general manager Brian Gutekunst, with a coach who bases his offense off the run game and making run and pass plays look alike, Jones is worth it. When Jones is on the field, the defense can’t be sure what’s coming, and he can beat them either way.
Yeah, there’s a little more risk paying running backs than other positions.
And Jones turns 26 in December, so the Packers should be thinking he’s got two really good years left, including this year, maybe three if they’re lucky. But this guy helps make their offense go, an offense that has put up 76 points — the Packers’ defense has scored nine — in the first two weeks of the season.
Jones is just as important to the Packers as Kamara is to the Saints and Cook to the Vikings.
“I think I’m close to the same caliber player as those guys,” Jones said Sunday after topping his 226 yards in total offense last year at Kansas City. “I don’t know how the (salary) cap and all that works, but I do think I’m right there in the range of those guys.”
Jones obviously is a dynamic runner, as he’s shown from the day he scorched Dallas for 125 rushing yards as a rookie in Week 5 of 2017. On the 75-yard touchdown Sunday he shot through the middle of the offensive line and was barely touched all the way to the end zone. But even without that run he averaged 5.4 yards on his 16 other carries.
But it’s the receiving that sets these dual-threat backs apart. Coach Matt LaFleur doesn’t think twice about flexing him out to receiver. Jones catches the ball easily, and last season defenses took to covering him with a cornerback when LaFleur set him out wide.
But the play Sunday that really jumped out was the leaping 30-yard catch against sixth-year cornerback Darryl Roberts in one-on-one coverage. Jones isn’t the only running back in the NFL who has a decent shot at getting open and making that grab against a coverage specialist, but the list is short.
“That was a pretty spectacular catch, him high-pointing that,” Rodgers said, “and it was tight coverage. “It wasn’t a ball I second-guessed (throwing) at all. That’s a credit to him. I don’t think, to answer your question, there’s not a high percentage of people around the league back-wise that are going to get plays called for them like that and can come down with those.”
Jones isn’t the only important decision Gutekunst has to make on contracts this year — left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Kevin King and center Corey Linsley also will be free agents in the offseason. And Jones’ injury history — three MCL tears in his first two seasons — is nothing to dismiss.
But Jones also is a guy who makes the plays that win games. As a running back he might not have a big window to keep playing at his peak, but it’s big enough to do a deal with him here and now, and at today’s prices.