Super Bowl route is clearly offensive
Packers defense not making enough plays
GREEN BAY - The last three times the Green Bay Packers went to the Super Bowl, they brought a top-five scoring defense with them.
As great as their offenses and the quarterbacks who led them were in 1996, ’97 and 2010, the Packers’ defenses were as or more critical to their advancement to the league title game.
Halfway through the season, the identity of the 2020 team is all about scoring. They are 6-0 when they put up 30 or more points and 0-2 when they don’t.
The defense, on the other hand, has yet to have anything to do with the outcome. It has only two games holding a team under 20 points, no game-saving stops and just six turnovers. The offense’s 5-minute time of possession advantage has as much to do with the defense’s No. 11 ranking (entering the weekend) in yards allowed as anything.
The final chapter of this season most likely rests on a defensive awakening.
As with those three previous Super Bowl teams, the Packers have an offense good enough to take them all the way.
They may not be the most talented offense in the NFL, but when you put running back Aaron Jones, receiver
Davante Adams and quarterback Aaron Rodgers on the field together, their star quality rises exponentially, as does the play of the players around them.
Subtract one of the three and the remaining two are still good players, but there's something about having them all together that elevates coach Matt LaFleur's offense to a different level. It's almost as though it's a chemical reaction and if all three ingredients aren't present it's a different compound altogether.
The 34-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night was just the fourth time the three have been on the field at the same time due to Adams' hamstring injury (two games missed) and Jones's calf injury (two games missed).
In those four games, they are 3-1 and have averaged 404 yards, 23 first downs and 32 points. The outlier was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss in which their offensive line was overrun and LaFleur had no answer for it.
The latest performance, which came against a San Francisco 49ers team missing four key components from its 2019 Super Bowl defense (Nick Bosa, Soloman Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman), was a classic example of how hard it can be to defend the Packers when the big three are healthy.
Jones looked like he had two weeks of charged-up energy from sitting out due to the calf injury and was bouncing off tackles like a sponge ball. Jones got the ball on the first four plays of the game and ran twice for 16 yards and caught two passes for 20 yards.
On the sixth play of the drive, Rodgers hit Davante Adams for a 36-yard touchdown and the challenge was thrown at the 49ers' feet: Either stop Jones or stop Adams or stop Rodgers, but no way are you stopping all three.
“We had a jolt tonight having ‘33' (Jones) back,” Rodgers said after the game. “He's a dynamic guy. He had a couple plays the first drive that were special. It was fun seeing him out there. But we had a lot of contributions from other guys tonight.”
The Packers entered the weekend ranked tied for second in points, ninth in yards and sixth in yards per play also because their offensive line has had only one bad game, tight end Robert Tonyan has emerged as a receiving threat and receiver/running back Tyler Ervin has kept defenses off balance with his dizzying array of motion before almost every snap he's on the field.
When receiver Allen Lazard (core muscle) and left tackle David Bakhtiari (chest) return – possibly this week – the potential for this offense is sky high. Like Mike Holmgren's offense in '96 and '97 and Mike McCarthy's in 2010, this one could take the Packers a long way.
At the halfway point of the season the Packers are 6-2, including 2-1 in the NFC North and 5-2 in the NFC. They are two games up in the loss column on the reeling Chicago Bears (5-4 after three straight losses) in the division and tied with the Seattle Seahawks (6-2) in the race for the NFC's top seed.
They came into the week with the hardest remaining schedule in the division based on cumulative opponent winning percentages and two of their opponents, the Indianapolis Colts (Nov. 22) and Chicago Bears (Nov. 29 and Jan. 3), have top-eight scoring defenses.
As good as the Packers' offense can be, there's scant evidence the defense will catch up and do anything but ride its coattails this season.
The sacks and interceptions the defense caused last year – making up for some of its weakness defending the run – got the Packers to the NFC Championship game. When the Packers needed it most, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan made the defense look like a bunch of chumps.
No longer getting the consistent pressure and turnovers of a year ago, the defense this season has yet to respond when the offense has really needed it (Tampa Bay game, second Minnesota game). It's allowing teams to average 4.53 yards per carry (18th entering the weekend) and 7.53 yards per passing attempt (26th).
The safeties have underperformed, nose tackle Kenny Clark hasn't been the same player since injuring his groin, outside linebacker Za'Darius Smith is playing with a bad ankle – although he does have seven sacks and two forced fumbles – and outside linebacker Preston Smith has rarely been around the quarterback.
And the inside linebacker position has been a problem spot because there hasn't been an experienced veteran to keep things in order since Christian Kirksey went out with a pec injury in Week 3.
“We've been starting off slow, man,” Za'Darius Smith said after the 49ers game. “But, you know, we've got a bunch of young guys and a bunch of new guys on defense. But for the opportunity for us, to come together, and keep doing what we're doing on this team, we're going to be a great defensive unit.”
Great is an easy word to throw around, but coordinator Mike Pettine's group is a long way away from that description. They don't belong on the same field with Fritz Shurmur's No. 1and No. 5-ranked defenses in '96 and '97 and Dom Capers' No. 2-ranked defense in 2010.
Some of the simplest things like tackling have been an issue for Pettine's group. It has had multiple games with a dozen or more missed tackles, which is off the charts bad.
Against the injury- and COVID-19decimated 49ers offense, the Packers were better, but it wasn't like they were facing Kansas City's offense or Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook. No one would describe the Packers' defense as overly physical and there's just eight weeks left for it to improve its reputation.
“When you get a defense that swarms and there's a lot of hats at the ball, if somebody does miss a tackle, it doesn't become an explosive gain because there's somebody right there to make the play,” LaFleur said. “I think that's where we've got to continue to progress.”
There's time for the defense to find a groove but if it doesn't it's going to be a mighty feat for the offense to pull this team all the way to the finish line.
The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year averaging fewer points than the Packers (28.0) and with a worse defense (17th ranked), so it's not out of the question. But if the Packers do get to the Super Bowl, it will be in a much different way than the last three times.