Battle for Johnson’s US Senate seat looms
If he runs, a top target; if he retires, a free-for-all
In two years, after the election drama of 2020, Wisconsin will be at the epicenter of another national struggle — the ongoing fight for control of the U.S. Senate.
Whether or not Republican Ron Johnson decides to seek a third term, the battle over his seat will be one of America’s most important Senate races in 2022.
If Johnson retires, it could produce a free-for-all on both sides during a fierce election cycle in which the office of governor is also on the ballot.
If Johnson runs again, he would likely become the top Senate target of Democrats nationally.
“He is poised to be probably the most vulnerable incumbent senator” in either party, said election analyst Jessica Taylor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
That doesn’t mean Johnson will be the underdog if he seeks a third term. He defied expectations — and the “vulnerable” tag — when he won a second term in 2016. History shows that incumbent senators in the “out party” (the party opposing the president) are very hard to beat in midterm elections.
But the ingredients are there for a fierce fight. This would be one of the few Republican Senate seats on the 2022 ballot in a state that voted Democratic for president in 2020.
And Johnson has been a lightning rod in the President Donald Trump years, an outspoken politician inspiring ardent support on the right and deep antipathy on the left.
The Wisconsin Republican has been in the middle of hot-button debates over the Trump impeachment fight, the pandemic, the conduct of the 2020 election and in recent days the COVID relief package before Congress.
On Friday, Johnson objected to $1,200 relief payments proposed by a GOP colleague, directed to individuals making up to $75,000. Johnson said the aid should be far more targeted. And he lodged his opposition to a stimulus bill “barreling through here” that he said was “way too big” for the size of the problem and is “mortgaging our children’s future.”
Democrats assailed his stance.
Jump-ball elections
Whoever the 2022 Senate candidates are in Wisconsin, they’ll be contesting a state that has become synonymous with jump-ball elections.
“We’ve seen all these (tight) elections in Wisconsin from state Supreme Court to governor in 2018 to president. It’s just a close competitive state,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the nonpartisan political newsletter based at the University of Virginia. “His seat will be very important.”
In a recent interview, Johnson said he is waiting in part to see which party will control the Senate over the next two years.
“The election is not over yet,” he said, referring to the two Senate run-offs in Georgia Jan. 5 that will determine whether the GOP remains in the majority.
“I’ve got to see, based on the results, how the Senate operates, and what the lay of the land is,” said Johnson, whose tenure as chairman of the Senate homeland security committee will end next month because Republicans impose a six-year term limit on committee chairmanships. Johnson is expected to chair the panel’s subcommittee on investigations if the GOP retains control.
“My bias has always been (to serve) two terms and go home,” he said. “That continues to be my preference, but at the same time the Senate is kind of a firewall against total control by Democrats, which would be I think a very bad thing for this country.”
On the Democratic side, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson has already declared his candidacy. Other potential candidates — from the wellknown to the lesser-known — include Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Milwaukee Bucks Senior Vice President Alex Lasry and Steven Olikara, founder and chief executive of the nonprofit Millennial Action Project.
There hasn’t been a significant, multicandidate Democratic Senate primary in Wisconsin since 1992, when dark horse Russ Feingold won the nomination and the general election. He was defeated by Johnson in 2010.
Adding to the intensity of this looming fight: Johnson’s outspoken defense of Trump, his arguments that the U.S. has overreacted to the pandemic, and his Senate investigation of Presidentelect Joe Biden and his son Hunter have made him a deeply disliked figure among Democrats in Wisconsin and nationally.
He drew fire this month for holding a hearing that promoted treatments for COVID-19 that haven’t been approved by health agencies.
In an interview, Godlewski said, “Ron Johnson does not fight for working Wisconsinites, whether you look at him not supporting the (stimulus) checks or the quack science he’s promoting on his perch at the homeland security committee.”
Nelson assailed Johnson for opposing stimulus checks “we desperately need” and accused him of not taking the pandemic seriously and peddling “snake oil” treatments for the coronavirus. He said he expected a lot of “rage giving” among Democratic donors because “there is so much contempt and antipathy” toward Johnson.
Republicans say Johnson generates headlines because he’s a straight-talker who chairs an important committee and reject the notion that he is too controversial or has been too strong in his support for Trump to defend a seat in a very purple state in 2022.
“The Democrats have piled up for years things he has said and every new thing they’ve added to the pile is the latest ‘deadly gaffe’ in their minds, and it’s just not really the case,” said GOP consultant Brian Reisinger, who worked on Johnson’s 2016 race. “People in Wisconsin know they’ve got a pretty damn conservative senator who speaks his mind and will work on issues that benefit everybody, too . ... I think he is probably more strongly positioned than he’s been for his last two elections.”
State GOP Chair Andrew Hitt said Johnson, an Oshkosh business owner whose 2010 Senate run was his first attempt at office, “still has that kind of ‘I’m not a politician’ label to him, despite being in the Senate for a while.”
Hitt said Johnson is “very conscientious of the decision he has before him and understands that it’s got to be made in a time frame to put himself or (another) Republican in good position” for 2022.
“There is a little bit of time yet,” said Hitt.
Crowded field expected
One political challenge for Johnson could be squaring another campaign with his original commitment to serve only two terms.
Taylor, of the Cook Political Report, said Johnson’s “steadfast fealty” to Trump and outspoken conservatism in a 50/50 state could leave him more politically exposed than other GOP incumbents in safer states in 2022.
Among the top Democratic targets will be the two Republican-held seats on the ballot in states Biden won this fall, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where incumbent U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey is not running again. (Georgia could be a third such state, depending on the outcome of next month’s run-off elections).
But Johnson would also bring political assets: a winning track record, firm support from the GOP’s conservative base and the advantage of running against the party of the president.
Senators in the “out-party” have won 16 of 17 reelection races over the past century in Wisconsin.
If Johnson retires, Republicans who are expected to look at running include former Congressman Sean Duffy, current House member Mike Gallagher and Kevin Nicholson, who lost a 2018 GOP Senate primary.
The list of Democratic candidates, meanwhile, is already starting to take shape.
Nelson is already in, saying he declared early because “we need someone out there taking (Johnson) on every day and every hour.”
Godlewski, a native of Eau Claire, said she expects to decide in the next few months. Alluding to her party’s struggles in some parts of the state, she pointed to her western Wisconsin roots, saying, “in a state where you win by 20,000 votes, you need to be able to talk to everybody.”
Barnes, the lieutenant governor, has drawn speculation as a potential candidate. He was a busy 2020 campaign surrogate for Biden, doing multiple online events in Wisconsin as well as Georgia, Arizona and Ohio.
In recent weeks, the Biden transition team reached out to Barnes to potentially join the administration, but he’s staying in Wisconsin.
“We have a lot of work to do right now and that’s what I’m focused on,” Barnes said in a statement about the 2022 Senate race.
Also looking at the seat are some Democrats who haven’t run for office before.
Lasry, of the Bucks, said he’ll decide early next year whether to run.
A former aide in the Barack Obama White House, Lasry helped spearhead the effort to land the 2020 Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee. He also played a role in the Bucks’ efforts to highlight issues of racial justice.
If he runs, Lasry could bring significant financial firepower. His father, Marc, is a billionaire hedge fund manager and a co-owner of the Bucks.
“The last few years have made it abundantly clear that Wisconsin needs new representation in Washington, and simply electing just another politician is not a solution to the challenges we face,” Lasry said in a statement. “I am seriously looking at running and will make a decision in the new year.”
Olikara’s Millennial Action Project seeks to work with young policymakers from across the political spectrum. He is the host of the Meeting in Middle America podcast. The group also held “Red & Blue” dialogues across the state in 2018 and 2019, focused on issues and building political bridges.
“A number of people I highly respect are encouraging me to look at this and I’m giving it a hard look right now,” Olikara said.