5 THINGS TO WATCH
1. LIFE BEYOND BAKHTIARI: Just like the Packers attacked the spot where injured Bears DT Akiem Hicks lines up in their first meeting, you can expect the Bears to try to attack any weakness that appears due to the season-ending knee injury to LT David Bakhtiari. A lot depends on how the Packers replace Bakhtiari. It seems most likely that Billy Turner will play LT, Rick Wagner will play RT and Lucas Patrick will play RG. Turner started all three games at LT when Bakhtiari had broken ribs, so it makes sense to put him there. The weakness will be on the right side with Patrick and Wagner, so the Bears will likely stick with Hicks and OLB Khalil Mack on their left side and try to overwhelm the pair. Their goal will be to create some one-on-ones for those two and make it difficult for the Packers to offer help. On the flip side, if the Bears do that, the combination of Turner and Elgton Jenkins could pose a problem for the defense when it comes to defending the run.
2. TO RUN OR NOT TO RUN: The Bears will be without starting cornerback Jaylon Johnson (shoulder) and nickel back Buster Skrine (concussion). In addition, starting safety Tashaun Gipson (neck) and backup safety Deon Bush (foot) are questionable. Against a banged-up secondary, coach Matt LaFleur might think there are some yards to be gained through the air, especially if defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano decides to load up on the run. That temptation will be there as LaFleur designs a game plan. But the Packers rushed for 182 yards in the first meeting and while some of that had to do with Hicks being out, the Bears aren’t the run-stuffing team they once were. Following rookie AJ Dillon’s 124-yard performance and with the return of Jamaal Williams (thigh), LaFleur has a triple threat in the backfield.
3. NO-PENALTY POLICY: Last Sunday against Tennessee, the Packers did not commit a penalty in a game for the first time since Nov. 4, 2013. Their last no-penalty game before that was Dec. 25, 2011. Both of those games were against the Bears. The Packers have been fairly disciplined this season when it comes to penalties, including committing just three against Chicago in the first meeting at Lambeau Field. In eight of their 15 games, they have committed five or fewer penalties, including four of their last five. They rank tied for 10th in fewest penalties with 80 this season and have committed 17 fewer than their opponents. The Bears rank 19th with 87 penalties. As chippy as a Packers-Bears game can get, the team that keeps it cool and plays the most disciplined football might have an advantage.
4. OUTSIDE IN: The defense’s performance against the Titans last week was notable in that the outside linebacker trio of Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Rashan Gary protected the edge in the run game better than it had all year. It was a big reason running back Derrick Henry didn’t have a run longer than 10 yards. The three continually funneled Henry inside toward the defensive linemen and refused to let him get around the corner. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine may need another performance like that against running back David Montgomery, especially if Pettine can get some quality snaps out of NT Damon “Snacks” Harrison, who was brought in to clog up the middle.
5. MEANING SOMETHING: Late-season games between the Packers and Bears haven’t meant much the past six years, but both teams have something at stake Sunday. The Bears are guaranteed a wild-card playoff berth if they win but can sneak in through the back door regardless of the outcome if Arizona loses to the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers are guaranteed home-field advantage if they win but can still be the top seed if Seattle loses to San Francisco. Given the Bears are playing for their playoff lives – and maybe coach Matt Nagy’s job – they are going to throw the kitchen sink at the Packers.