GREEN BAY PACKERS (14-3) VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (13-5)
5 THINGS TO WATCH
1. IN A ZONE: For as much as has been made about the Packers’ prowess inside the 20-yard line – they rank No. 1 in touchdown percentage – the Buccaneers aren’t chopped liver. The two teams had nearly the same number of possessions inside the 20 – Green Bay 60, Tampa Bay 61 – and the Packers scored 48 TDs to Tampa Bay’s 42. Even though the Packers didn’t miss any field goals, the Buccaneers scored at a higher percentage, putting up points 95.1% of the time to Green Bay’s 91.7%. Tom Brady has thrown 28 touchdowns and no interceptions inside the 20 and has a passer rating of 107.9, but Rodgers has been even better with 35 touchdowns and no interceptions, a 71.9% completion rate and 119.1 rating. In the postseason, the Buccaneers have four touchdowns on 11 red-zone attempts (36.4%), while the Packers are 3 of 5 (60%).
2. TURNING IT OVER: The Buccaneers have won the turnover battle 10 times this season, including playoffs, and finished sixth in the regular season with a plus-eight turnover margin. All three times they lost the turnover margin (twice to New Orleans, once to Kansas City), they lost the game. Only against the Saints in the first meeting and Atlanta on Dec. 20 did they not force a turnover. In their divisional-round victory over the Saints, they forced four turnovers and three of them led to touchdown drives that started at the New Orleans 3-, 40- and 20-yard lines. The Packers committed the fewest turnovers of any team (11), but two of them were against the Buccaneers in Week 6.
3. MATCH GAME: The Packers’ defense did not play that poorly in the first meeting, considering the unit was starting Josh Jackson at cornerback and Ty Summers at inside linebacker. Jackson hasn’t even been active of late and Summers is strictly a special teamer now. Also, nose tackle Kenny Clark was back for the first time since the opener due to a groin injury. Brady completed just 17 of 27 passes for 166 yards, but he threw a pair of touchdown passes that were part of a 31-point scoring run. Brady is 11-3 against defensive coordinator Mike Pettine (who ran defenses with the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns before joining the Packers), winning their last eight meetings. However, Brady has thrown for just 24 touchdowns with seven interceptions in those 14 meetings. Pettine knows a little bit about what makes Brady uncomfortable.
4. STRENGTH VS. STRENGTH: It sounds as though the Buccaneers will have massive nose tackle Vita Vea back in at least a limited capacity, which means running up the middle against Vea and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh will not be easy. The Packers have their own form of muscle in left guard Elgton Jenkins, whose athleticism and brute strength make him one of the top young guards in the NFL. Lined up next to left tackle Billy Turner, who is the line’s second-best athlete, coach Matt LaFleur can use Jenkins for several chores knowing that Turner won’t get in his way.
5. ON THE RUN: It’s well-documented how much the Packers rely on their run game, but for the Buccaneers, who finished the regular season ranked tied for 28th in rushing, it has become vital in the playoffs. In the wild-card round, Ronald Jones injured a thigh in warmups, but led by Leonard Fournette (19 carries for 93 yards), the Buccaneers rushed 29 times for 142 yards against Washington. Jones returned last week and split time with Fournette, combining with him on 30 carries for 125 yards in the victory over New Orleans. The Packers’ run defense has been better of late but the Buccaneers’ tandem will push them.