Johnson keeps politicians guessing
Will he step away from 2022 race like he said he would, or ride on incumbency?
Whither Ron Johnson?
It’s a question a lot of people in politics are asking these days as they look ahead to the 2022 election, the ongoing battle for control of a divided U.S Senate and the unfolding political landscape in swing-state Wisconsin.
Johnson’s personal plans figure hugely in all of this, as his own party waits to hear whether he’ll seek a third term in the Senate.
If he does, he’ll be widely regarded as the most vulnerable Republican senator in the country.
If he doesn’t, he’ll be depriving his party of the advantage of incumbency in a 50-50 state that could tip the balance of power in Congress.
I reached out to a half-dozen Wisconsin Republicans who’ve followed Johnson’s career to gauge their expectations about Johnson’s plans. (I spoke to most of them with the understanding they would not be quoted by name, to encourage candor).
Three said they thought Johnson would run again or is leaning that way. Two thought it was basically up in the air. Only one predicted he would not run but still viewed it as essentially a coin toss.
Johnson appears to be in no hurry to decide, so the suspense may build this winter and spring.
It is unusual to have this much early drama around one senator’s reelection
plans, but there are several contributing factors here:
Control of the Senate
Wisconsin could be a tipping point for control of the Senate in 2022. And the Senate is currently evenly divided. Wisconsin heads the list of the most competitive states that have Senate races this cycle. Among the others: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.
For Democrats, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the most enticing shots to pick up a GOP seat, since both states narrowly voted for Democrat Joe Biden last fall. If he runs, Johnson would be the only incumbent Republican senator on the ballot in a “Biden state.” The recent retirement announcements by GOP senators in Pennsylvania and Ohio have fueled questions in Washington about Johnson’s plans.
What it means for Wisconsin
Johnson’s decision has ripple effects that will shape the entire election landscape in Wisconsin over the next two years. There are two huge statewide races on the 2022 ballot: Senate and governor. If Johnson opts out of politics, there could be contested GOP primaries for both offices.
At least one of those races could turn into a proxy fight over the direction of the Republican Party in the aftermath of the Trump presidency. If Johnson decides to run for reelection, it could create a bigger GOP field in the governor’s race. Johnson has even raised the possibility in the past of running for governor in 2022, though that seems unlikely.
Johnson as a political figure
Johnson is kind of an X-factor unto himself. In the political world, he is seen by many as either hard to figure, marching to his own tune, stubborn, unconventional or enigmatic.
One GOP strategist I spoke with said, “I’ve watched him since his first announcement speech and still can’t peg down how he makes these decisions,” noting Johnson’s recent handling of the attempt by Trump and his supporters to overturn the Electoral College vote.
Johnson announced his intention to reject the electors in key states that Biden won, but later voted to uphold Biden’s victory. Johnson said toward the end of his 2016 campaign he would serve only two terms, then backed off that commitment after the 2018 midterms.
Johnson spokesman Ben Voelkel offered this brief statement on Johnson’s plans:
“Ron Johnson is focused on delivering results for Wisconsin and not on political parlor games.”
In a mid-December interview before the Georgia runoffs that delivered control of the Senate to Democrats, Johnson told me he was waiting to see which party would have the majority and how the Senate would be operating for the next two years.
“My bias has always been two terms and go home,” he said. “That continues to be my preference, but at the same time the Senate is kind of a firewall against total control by Democrats, which would be, I think, a very bad thing for this country.”
Johnson was quoted recently by Politico saying, “There are some (Republicans) that want me to run, some that don’t. … From my standpoint, I don’t feel under pressure that I have to decide really quick.”
Multiple Democrats have decided to run or are considering running for Senate, whether or not Johnson seeks a third term.
What GOP insiders see
But since his decision has a more immediate impact on his own party, I reached out to Republican insiders and strategists who either know Johnson or have closely followed his career to see how they read the situation.
Why would Johnson retire from the Senate?
These Republicans pointed to his promise late in his 2016 campaign that he was making his last Senate run and would leave office after a second term, as well as concerns about staying in Washington too long. They noted Johnson sees himself as a Washington outsider and non-career politician. They said that the loss of the GOP Senate majority deprived Johnson of power and influence in the final two years of his term. And they said his family’s preference may be for him to leave politics. Why would Johnson run again? These Republicans noted that he’s being strongly urged by some in the party to run again because of the importance of his seat to the battle for Senate control.
“Given the recent retirements from fellow swing-state senators, there’s enormous pressure on Ron to run again,” said one Republican strategist.
“I think he believes he is uniquely positioned to win, and his winning is integral to Republicans not being in the minority,” said another.
Some said that his desire to prove critics wrong about his electoral vulnerability, and his belief that he is “smarter than the political class” could come into play, as could his aversion to seeing Democrats remain in power.
One Republican offered this optimistic scenario: the GOP takes back the House in the 2022 midterms, then retakes the Senate and the White House in 2024, empowering at least the last two years of a third Johnson term. The same Republican noted that even in the minority, senators can wield power, especially with the seniority Johnson is accumulating.
Would the party’s prospects for holding the seat be diminished if Johnson bows out?
It’s hard to answer this without knowing who the party’s nominee would be in an open-seat race. But there are arguments pro and con about Johnson’s electability. His staunch defense of Trump and claims about election irregularities have made Johnson more popular than ever with the party’s proTrump base. That “gives hardcore Trump supporters a reason to turn out in ’22,” said GOP consultant Bill McCoshen.
“No other politician in the state, for governor or Senate, has his intensity with the base, proven ability to win swing voters and fundraising prowess,” said one Republican.
On the other hand, his outspoken backing of Trump could cost Johnson support among independents and GOPleaning voters turned off by Trump, the effort to overturn the election and the storming of the Capitol.
“It is going to be hard for him to run as an independent given he hitched his wagon to President Trump, and I think it leaves him vulnerable to more potent attacks than Democrats had at their disposal in 2010 and 2016,” said one GOP strategist.
Democrats see this as a big political opening against Johnson. Democratic Congressman Mark Pocan, who does not plan to run for Senate, called Johnson a “true disciple” of Trump.
“It has been embarrassing, honestly, to watch what’s transpired in the last year. So, if Ron does decide to run, I guarantee he will be beat by whoever wins the primary and there will be a Democratic primary,” Pocan told reporters this past week. “But you know, he also may not decide to run because he is a guy who is pretty unique and kind of marches to his own drummer, and even if that drum is a saxophone.”
There are at least two big arguments for why Republicans would see Johnson as their best bet for holding the seat. He has already won twice, including 2016, when his chances were written off by many in his party and he ended up outperforming Trump.
And history shows that incumbent senators who belong to the party out of power almost never lose elections.
When should we expect Johnson to announce a decision?
This affects Republicans far more than Democrats. One Republican I reached out to said Johnson should let his party know “ASAP.” Others said they would like to see a decision sometime in the first half of 2021. One Johnson supporter said he doesn’t see why Johnson needs to decide before late fall. “They can wait,” this Republican said of aspiring Senate candidates in the party.
“I think Senator Johnson is the best hope to keep the seat,” McCoshen said. “He may not make a final decision until summertime. At that point, he needs to let folks know if he isn’t going to seek reelection so quality candidates can develop credible campaigns.”
The general wisdom is that the sooner Johnson decides, the more time he allows people in his own party to make their own plans and organize their own campaigns.
But one Republican strategist made the contrary argument — that it’s better for the party if Johnson delays his decision because it shortens the window for a potentially divisive Senate primary and keeps Republicans focused on their opposition to what Democrats are doing, “as opposed to having an internal war about who is more Trump-like.”
Bill Glauber of the Journal Sentinel contributed to this report.