Preview: Three reasons to believe in the Brewers in 2021, and three reasons to doubt,
The Milwaukee Brewers will be vying for a fourth consecutive playoff berth when they open the 2021 season Thursday afternoon against the Minnesota Twins at renamed American Family Field.
Do you like the Brewers’ chances of an unprecedented fourth trip in a row to the playoffs or do you have deep skepticism about their chances? If you’re sitting on the fence, here are three reasons to believe it will happen and three reasons not to believe:
THREE REASONS TO BELIEVE 1. Yelich regains his form
When the Brewers agreed to a nineyear, $215 million contract extension with outfielder Christian Yelich in spring training of 2020, he officially became the face of the franchise. But little went Yelich’s way the rest of the year as he failed to find a groove during the pandemic-shortened 60-game season. He stumbled to a 1-for-27 start to the season that put him in a never-ending catch-up mode, resulting in a .205 batting average, 12 homers, 22 RBI, .786 OPS and 76 strikeouts in 200 at-bats.
Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns called Yelich’s struggles “the perfect storm.” He was coming off a broken kneecap the previous September that slowed his offseason preparation, played sparingly in spring camp before the pandemic sent players home, couldn’t do much back home in L.A. during the 3 1⁄2-month shutdown, failed to find his timing during the rushed three-week summer camp and then got off to the brutal start. But everything is different this time around and Yelich looks ready to unleash another MVP-caliber season.
Entering the final exhibition game Tuesday in Texas, Yelich was batting .370 (12 for 27) with a .469 OBP and .852 slugging percentage, with three homers, eight RBI and only six strikeouts. He is motivated to show last year was a COVID fluke, so pitchers should beware.
2. Two strong starters, relievers
The Brewers’ starting rotation begins with hard-throwing right-handers Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, and the relief corps features late-inning finishers Devin Williams and Josh Hader. When those four pitchers are in the game, hitters usually have trouble making contact. Burnes had one of the highest strikeout rates among starters in 2020, checking in at 14.3 per nine innings. Woodruff was not far behind at 11.1 whiffs per nine innings.
Williams had an incredible rookie season, featuring a changeup so otherworldly it got a nickname, “Airbender.” Combined with a high 90s fastball, the lanky righty struck out 53 hitters in 27 innings, a rate of 17.7 per nine innings. With only one earned run allowed, Williams took home the NL rookie of the year award as well as NL reliever of the year. Hader, who was the two-time reigning reliever of the year, mixed in a slider more often to keep hitters off his fastball and struck out 31 in 19 innings, or 14.7 per nine, while leading the league with 13 saves.
With a 1-2 punch like that at the end of games, opponents who fall behind after seven innings usually are in big trouble, and they know it.
3. Strong middle defense
How many teams have two Gold Glove centerfielders on the same roster? The Brewers doubled their total by adding Jackie Bradley Jr., the 2018 winner in the American League with Boston, to Lorenzo Cain, their 2019 winner in the NL. Of course, you can only use one centerfielder at a time, so playing time could get interesting but manager Craig Counsell plans to often use an outfield that has Cain in center and Bradley in right, forming a duo certain to cover plenty of ground.
Another defensive whiz was added when second baseman Kolten Wong was signed to a two-year free agent deal, ending a seven-year-plus run in St. Louis that included Gold Glove Awards the last two seasons. The Brewers figure to be a strong defensive club, particularly up the middle, with Luis Urías and Orlando Arcia sharing the shortstop position and veteran catchers Omar Narváez and Manny Piña back with the club.
Narváez had been considered a defensive liability prior to 2020, when he made tremendous strides through hard work and coaching, leading all MLB catchers in framing pitches for strikes.
THREE REASONS NOT TO BELIEVE 1. The rest of the pitching staff
In between the starting combo of Woodruff and Burnes, and the finishing duo of Williams and Hader, there are many unproven pitchers the Brewers will be counting on. No. 3 starter Adrian Houser was 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA in 12 outings (11 starts) last season and struggled for much of spring training before turning in 52⁄3 scoreless innings in his final outing Monday night in Texas. Fifth starter Freddy Peralta has pitched better out of the bullpen (8-1, 3.59 ERA in 47 games) than the rotation (8-7, 5.45 in 23 starts)but has expanded his repertoire of secondary pitches and the Brewers believe he is ready to break through. Veteran lefty Brett Anderson is considered more steady (4-4, 4.21 last season) than spectacular.
Swingman Brent Suter has been the Swiss army knife of the pitching staff, filling multiple innings wherever needed, and hard-throwing rookie Drew Rasmussen, who got his feet wet in the majors last season, will be asked to do likewise. Veteran right-hander Josh Lindblom, who scuffled in the rotation in 2020 (2-4, 5.16) after returning from the Korean Baseball Organization, will start the season in the bullpen but is expected to make starts at times. Sidearmer Eric Yardley was a dependable workhorse last season (1.54 ERA in 24 games) but struggled this spring (7.36 ERA through eight outings). The Brewers will be missing a valuable arm after Justin Topa was lost near the end of camp with a flexor strain that will sideline him for the first half of the season.
2. Hiura adjusting to first base
First base has been a revolving door for the Brewers since Prince Fielder left via free agency after the 2011 season, beginning a string of different opening day starters at the position each year. Now, it’s Keston Hiura’s turn as he moves off second base to accommodate the arrival of Wong. Hiura never had played first base at any level previously and it showed at times during spring training with the expected hiccups but he looked more comfortable there during the final exhibition games. Expect the learning curve to continue throughout the season.
The bigger question is: Will Hiura profile offensively as a first baseman? He broke into the big leagues with some eye-opening numbers in 2019, batting .303 over 84 games with 19 home runs, 49 RBI and .938 OPS. But pitchers began working Hiura up in the strike zone last season and he had trouble laying off high pitches, resulting in a league-high 85 strikeouts in 217 at-bats, an alarming rate even for a young hitter. Now, it’s up to Hiura to make his own adjustments and show pitchers they must throw him strikes. He still struck out a bit in exhibition play (17 in 43 at-bats) but began driving the ball more consistently with three doubles, four homers, 11 RBI and .935 OPS.
3. An unsettled left side of infield
The Brewers are operating in good faith that Luis Urías can handle the bulk of the work at shortstop and Travis Shaw will produce enough offensively to do likewise at third base. Otherwise, Orlando Arcia – who had been the everyday shortstop since arriving in the majors during the 2016 season – will provide coverage at both positions with utility player Daniel Robertson in the mix as well. As always, whoever provides the most production will get to play the most.
Urías, whose 2020 season was marred by a broken hamate bone prior to spring camp and a bout with COVID-19 when summer camp began, missed time early in camp and didn’t play as much as hoped. He started swinging the bat better toward the end but still must show he can handle the work on both sides of the ball at shortstop.
Shaw, who had big years for the Brewers in 2017-18 before collapsing in ’19 and leaving for Toronto, got off to a slow start in camp but found his timing toward the end and started driving the ball more. Left-handed power plays big at American Family Field and the Brewers are hoping Shaw takes advantage.