New forecast: 7 to 10 hurricanes expected this season
The federal government continues to expect another active Atlantic hurricane season in 2021 with seven to 10 hurricanes forming, according to an updated forecast released Wednesday.
An average season spawns seven hurricanes and peaks in August, September and October. If predictions hold true, it will be a record sixth consecutive year of above-normal activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 15 to 21 named storms will develop. That number includes tropical storms, which have wind speeds of 39 mph or higher. Storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph.
Of the predicted hurricanes, three to five could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher.
The forecast is a slight increase from the one NOAA released in May, when forecasters said six to 10 hurricanes and 13 to 20 total named storms would form this year.
Five named storms have formed this year, including Hurricane Elsa, which spun up on the west coast of Florida in early July. Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August.
“After a record-setting start, the Atlantic 2021 hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement.
Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said “a mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Niña in the months ahead.”
The La Niña climate pattern, which is marked by cooler-than-average sea water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, often increases hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Atlantic sea water temperatures are not expected to be as warm as they were during the record-breaking 2020 season, when 30 named storms formed, according to NOAA. But reduced vertical wind shear and an enhanced west Africa monsoon contribute to favor aboveaverage seasonal hurricane activity.
Leading hurricane forecasts from AccuWeather, Colorado State University and Weather.com agree with NOAA that 2021 will experience higher-than-normal activity.
Hurricane forecasts include storms that form in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
The season officially began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.