Tropical storm begins to form in Caribbean
A disturbance swirling in the Caribbean was expected to become Tropical Storm Fred, the sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday.
Florida could be in the storm’s path, but forecasters said it was too early to determine the exact track.
The system, now known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, had moved through the southern Leeward Islands and was about 220 miles southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico, on Tuesday afternoon, according to the center. It had 35 mph maximum sustained winds and moved west-northwest at 18 mph.
A tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph.
The disturbance was expected to be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. A tropical storm warning was in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic.
Heavy rain is likely over the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, which could lead to flash, urban and small-stream flooding and mudslides. The greatest threat for flooding will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.
Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. The system could intensify once it reaches the waters south of Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend, forecasters said. But that path could change.
“The system is being guided along to the west-northwest by the circulation around a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Florida and the Keys could be in the system’s path. This scenario could unfold if the high-pressure area weakens and allows the system to turn more to the north, Kottlowski said.
There have been no named storms since Hurricane Elsa dissipated July 9.
The 2021 hurricane season is expected to be active, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says. Fifteen to 21 named storms could develop, and seven to 10 could be hurricanes.