Republicans go to convention consumed with ’20 election
Pollsters: Unclear if that will be big in November
MADISON – It’s been a year since Republican legislative leaders in Wisconsin took a step they thought would put to rest former President Donald Trump’s false claims of voter fraud in this battleground state and allow the party to move on from 2020.
It didn’t work.
Wisconsin Republicans head into their state party convention this weekend a year after the last gathering where Trump’s pressure pushed Assembly Speaker Robin Vos to name former Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman to coordinate a probe to be conducted by former police detectives into the 2020 election. At the time, it was set to last just a few months.
But Gableman’s taxpayer-funded review continues despite not having found evidence of widespread fraud, and a member of Vos’ own caucus launched a campaign for governor falsely arguing the 2020 election could be decertified.
Now, the Wisconsin Republican party is on the brink of setting the agenda for the next six months and the candidates for governor are running, in large part, on 2020 grievance — the very election-year scenario party leaders sought to avoid by announcing Gableman’s hire a year ago.
“Republican primary voters in August are likely to come much more from the election skeptics of the party, and the third of Republicans that actually do think the election was properly conducted are likely to be underrepresented in the primary, and maybe feel a bit alienated from the party as it is,” Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll, said in an interview.
“And that could have consequences going forward into November.”
The last presidential election remains top-of-mind for Wisconsinites likely to vote in the Republican primary for governor. For many, it’s the only issue that matters.
But whether the baseless allegations about an election that took place nearly two years ago will be motivating in November for those who believe the false accusations and those who reject them is still unclear, nonpartisan pollsters say.
The effect of inflation on the daily costs of American life could become paramount. And the issue of abortion has now exploded into this year’s election cycle.
At the same time, the portion of the Republican electorate that does not buy into Trump’s election distortions could have a meaningful impact in statewide
races that are decided by a percentage point or less.
Franklin said at least one-third of the Wisconsin Republican Party has “real differences” over the election fraud argument, which could have an impact on the general election in a state with tiny election margins in statewide races.
“If you go to any Republican Party event in a county somewhere, you’ve heard very angry voters talking about election fraud and stealing the election. So it’s no mystery why that is driving the party and the candidates.
“It’s very hard to see how there’s anyone in the party that can turn away from that at this point,” Franklin said. “I think the gubernatorial candidates are largely responding to the party base but on an issue, which, again, it’s a two to one minority or one to two minority in the general population. The one question is how salient is this issue in November?”
In western Wisconsin, a region of the state built on the state’s signature industry of dairy farming that also is defined by its unpredictable politics, a local Republican Party leader said election issues are still important to Republican voters but expects inflation will be the top motivation.
“There there are a number of Republican Party leaders, to include people like Rep. Tim Ramthun, that’s their number one and only priority,” Doug Rogalla, chairman of the Monroe County Republican Party, said in an interview, referring to GOP candidate for governor Ramthun and his focus on the impossible effort to decertify the 2020 election.
“I mean, I sure share many of those concerns but I think what’s most important is winning this election in November.”
At the same time, Rogalla said he plans to show to his caucus “2000 Mules,” a film that uses faulty cell phone data analysis to allege that hundreds of thousands of illegal ballots were cast in five battleground states in the 2020 election, including Wisconsin.
“Hopefully at some point in time we can find a prosecutor that’s willing to to follow all the evidence down the rabbit hole and and we can actually bring people to justice that attacked our democracy,”
“I think the gubernatorial candidates are largely responding to the party base but on an issue, which, again, it’s a ... one to two minority in the general population. The one question is how salient is this issue in November?” Charles Franklin
Rogalla said.
Ramthun, who has invited Trump ally and 2020 election conspiracy promoter MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell to appear at the state GOP convention with him this weekend, recently revived a resolution legislative leaders have rejected that would pull back Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes cast for President Joe Biden.
The three other Republican candidates for governor — Rebecca Kleefisch, Tim Michels and Kevin Nicholson — also have questioned the outcome and administration of the last election and put forward plans that would either dissolve the state elections agency or fire everyone in charge.
If elected, the candidates would be in a position to choose to certify the next presidential election or not, putting a referendum on democracy on the fall ballot. When asked, Kleefisch would not promise to certify the next presidential contest.
Barry Burden, the director of University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Elections Research Center, said the Republican candidates’ focus on elections or Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers’ push to show himself as a goalie fending off anti-democratic legislation could resonate, but the complicated nature of the issue might blunt the impact when compared to other matters.
“Most of the public would say they think there were things that could be done to improve the election system and to tighten it up. That tends to be what you see in surveys. But, as I said, people were also contradictory,” Burden said. “They want voting to be easy, and they like getting ballots by mail ... and I think the average member the public just hasn’t put all these pieces of the system together to think about how it all interacts.”
Franklin said his polling suggests “just the veneer of being Republican is saying the election was fraudulent.”
“I’m getting the sense from our data that saying saying the election was stolen, or there was fraud, has kind of become a part of many Republicans simply identifying as Republicans,” Franklin said.
“Trump’s rhetoric has been so strong for so long about this, so many other Republicans have adopted that rhetoric, that you’re really kind of out of place in the party right now if you say anything else.”
Roe v. Wade and the issues of abortion in 2022
The effect of the issue of abortion on the 2022 electorate is less murky, especially after the idea of Roe v. Wade being overturned has transformed into a likely reality.
Nearly everyone polled in a recent Marquette University Law School survey opposes banning abortion without exceptions for situations involving rape or incest. But the Republican candidates for governor are adopting that unpopular position.
In a November 2021 survey, 61% of registered voters said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 23% said it should be illegal in most cases and 11% want it banned in all cases.
The issue gives voters a clear contrast between the Republican candidates for governor, who would keep the state’s 19th Century-era law that bans all abortions except when the mother’s life is at risk, and Evers, who supports preserving access to abortions.
Burden said with the state’s small election margins, the GOP position on abortion in a state that generally supports abortion access in at least some cases could put candidates’ chances of winning in November in jeopardy if other issues or events aren’t overshadowing its importance in voters’ minds.
“Those are minority views. They’re not popular views,” Burden said. “If this comes down to whether one percentage point when for one side or the other, even a small effect of the abortion issue could matter.”
Hannah Menchoff, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, said the positions Republican candidates for governor are taking show the ultimate nominee will be “too divisive” for the general electorate.
“It’s clear that the division within the Republican Party isn’t going to end after the state convention. If anything, it will only inflame the candidates further, who have shown they will stop at nothing to be at the most extreme position of every issue,” she said. “From promising to limit voting rights and abortion access to failing to offer up a plan for the state’s surplus — what real solutions have Republicans provided for Wisconsinites that don’t involve lies and conspiracies?”
Brian Reisigner, a Republican strategist who has worked on U.S. Senate and Wisconsin governor campaigns, said the recent leak of the U.S. Supreme Court opinion showing a majority of justices voted to overturn the court’s landmark ruling legalizing abortion gives energy to both opponents and supporters of abortion access but that it’s too early to know how much it animates the general electorate.
Reisinger said when taking positions in the primary, GOP candidates should keep in mind the forest and not the trees.
“The election overall is still going to be dealing with a lot of other very large issues, like the cost of living and inflation, like the way that we’re navigating this stage of the pandemic, and these large issues that drive the overall political dynamic. And I think it’s really important that candidates not lose sight of that fact,” Reisinger said.
“The days of the Mitt Romney EtchA-Sketch are gone,” he said, referring to a comment a Romney aide made in the 2012 presidential cycle suggesting statements made in the primary could be forgotten or even reversed in the general election race.
“We are in a media environment, and a politically charged political environment to the point that you can’t just think that you can say one thing in a primary and another thing is in the general, and nobody’s going to care.”
director of the Marquette University Law School poll