What would a contract extension for Love look like?
GREEN BAY − When talk turns to the prospects of the Green Bay Packers paying Jordan Love a big contract extension this offseason, the skeptics almost always point to Daniel Jones.
Jones is the poster boy for an NFL team’s expensive mistake at quarterback. Last offseason, the New York Giants paid him ($40 million average, $81 million guaranteed), and it blew up in their faces. By the time Jones’ season ended with a torn ACL in Week 9, the Giants were 1-5 in games he started.
It’s true the Packers will be taking a risk when they extend Love’s contract this offseason, as they’ve acknowledged they intend to. It’s going to be expensive – more expensive than Jones – and there’s no guarantee Love will prove worth it.
But – and does this really need saying? – Love is no Daniel Jones.
Yes, Jones went 9-6-1 in ’22 and even won a playoff game. But he did not carry his team in any sense of the word. He threw 15 touchdown passes and five interceptions in 16 regular-season games. In two playoff games, he threw two touchdown passes and one interception. All that did was put the Giants in quarterback no-man’s land. Jones’ rookie contract was up, so they decided to pay him and find out if he really was good enough.
But Jones (22-36-1 career record) never had a stretch like Love’s final 10 games last season (24 touchdown passes, three interceptions, playoffs included). Love wasn’t the only reason the Packers went on their 6-2 run and then won a road playoff game, but he was the biggest.
Love might end up not being worth a big contract extension. He might get hurt or plateau. But the Packers are not in no-man’s land at quarterback, which surely had to be their fear early last season.
“They gave him a bridge deal (last year), he went out there and proved himself, now pay him,” an agent for one of the NFL’s major agencies said. “Doesn’t mean give him a whole bunch of money for the sake of it; be smart with it, but just get the deal done and
take care of the guy. I just think this deal isn’t that difficult to do.”
What will Love’s new contract look like?
Love can’t sign an extension until early May at the soonest, but when he does the headline number will be big and scary. As in, it probably will say his new deal averages $50 million, if not more.
Love’s actual pay, though, will be less than that, in the lower- to mid-$40 million range per season. He’ll still be making huge money – that’s the cost of doing business in the NFL – but it won’t be as much as the headlines suggest.
The reason goes back to the “new money” distinction agents and teams use to describe NFL contracts. There’s a phony-money element to it, but it’s worth knowing.
“New money” refers to the money and years added to a contract. If a player’s deal has a year left worth $10 million, and he adds four years and $200 million to the deal, then the new-money average is $50 million (i.e., $200 million over four years).
But he gets some of that new money immediately, and his new contract actually is for five years and $210 million. So his true average is $42 million ($210 million over five years).
Why the distinction? Mostly because it helps agents say they got their client a better contract than they really did.
What should you look for in gauging contracts?
There are several ways to interpret NFL contracts, and some players might prioritize one measure, while others another. When it comes to these big quarterback contracts, generally the amount of money paid over the first three years of the deal matters most.
That’s because the first three years are usually fully guaranteed money. The quarterback knows he’s going to get it, and in a relatively short time, unless he retires. After three years, he’ll either have played well enough to be in line for a new extension, or he and the team will be parting ways, if they hadn’t already.
Who are the best contract comparisons?
Two of Love’s 2020 draft classmates, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. They signed contract extensions recently (last offseason), and though Love has far fewer starts, his play matches up well.
Herbert is the lone Day 1 starter of the three and is a gifted passer who has had to carry the Los Angeles Chargers. But even discarding his rookie season, his record is only 24-23, and he’s taken his team to only one playoff game in four years, a loss to Jacksonville in the wild-card round in the ’22 season.
Hurts became a starter in his second season and has put up a great record (32-14) while leading one of the most talented teams in the league. He’s been to the playoffs three times, including advancing to the Super Bowl in the 2022 season, when he also finished second in the MVP voting behind landslide winner Patrick Mahomes. But his team faded badly down the stretch last season with six losses in its last seven games, including in a blowout to Tampa Bay in the wild-card round of the playoffs.
Love, on the other hand, is only a one-year starter who went 9-8. But in his final eight regular-season games, he put up a 112.7 rating and was the key to the Packers’ 6-2 run to the playoffs. Then in the wild-card round, he played an exceptional game (157.2 rating) in a road win at Dallas and performed well enough in the divisional round to take the San Francisco 49ers to the wire on the road.
Put another way: If you had your choice, would you take Herbert, Hurts or Love? Not an easy call.
Herbert can really spin the ball but has had injury issues (broken ribs in ’22, broken finger that ended his ’ 23 season with four games remaining) and hasn’t even won a playoff game yet. Hurts relies a lot on his running ability, which could catch up to him (a knee injury last year contributed to his play slipping as the season went on).
Love’s body of work is smaller, but his play the second half of last season stands up to the best of the other two.
An NFL scout contacted this week said, “I know Herbert is the golden child, but I’d take Love.”
What are Herbert and Hurts paid?
They signed extensions four months apart last offseason. Herbert’s is the better of the two. Here are the most important details:
Herbert’s new-money average is $52.5 million, which ranks second in the NFL. Hurts’ $51 million ranks fourth.
Herbert’s first three years average $44.6 million, which ranks fourth in the league. Hurts’ $35.4 million ranks seventh.
What’s Love likely to get?
Each year, salary-cap inflation drives up the cost of doing business. The cap is expected to take a big jump this year (from $224 million to reportedly $243 million or more), and Love will benefit from that.
The guess here is Love’s new-money average will be at least $50 million, and very possibly at or slightly above Herbert’s $52.5 million. And the first three years? Probably a lot closer to Herbert’s $44.6 million average than Hurts’ $35.4 million.
What will this mean for the Packers’ salary cap?
That depends on how the sides structure the contract. There are numerous options. But it’s a given the Packers will want Love’s salary-cap number as low as possible for the next couple of years. Really, with the yearly option of restructures, teams don’t feel the salary-cap pain from these huge contracts until the player leaves the team.
With a big signing bonus and fully guaranteed money in ’ 24 and ’25, the Packers can easily structure Love’s deal to count less than $20 million on this year’s cap (he currently counts $12.7 million), and not much more than $20 million on the ’25 cap.