Having a big need at running back in draft
GREEN BAY – In 2017, Ted Thompson selected three running backs in his final draft as the Green Bay Packers general manager.
One (Aaron Jones) turned out to be outstanding, another (Jamaal Williams) was OK and the third (Devante Mays) lasted only one season in the NFL.
It might be time for Brian Gutekunst, Thompson’s successor, to draft three more.
The smart money says the Packers will work out a modest pay cut for Jones within the next week to come back for at least one more season. But the Packers still need a lot of help at running back, and they need it now for an offense that has to have a good run game and in a league where one good back is never enough.
The problem is, running back is probably the worst position to try to fill in free agency. Football is a young man’s game, and running back is its ultimate young man’s position.
Some big-name backs will be on the open market when the free agency negotiating period opens March 11 – Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry head the list. In theory, pairing any of them with Jones is intriguing. But running backs age fast, and any back beyond his first contract is by definition already getting old. Jacobs and Barkley are 26, and Henry (gasp) is 30.
The risk of blowing money on a running back in free agency is greater than any other position, and the Packers have needs (safety and linebacker) where the cash can be better spent. There’s a good argument Gutekunst should skip running back free agency, draft three and go from there.
Brian Gutekunst has experience with draft-loading a position
It’s something he saw Thompson do in ’17, as well as Ron Wolf at cornerback (three with his first three picks) when Gutekunst was a young Packers scout in 1999. Gutekunst himself did the same at receiver in his first draft as GM, in 2018.
“That’s not a bad way to go about things because of the competition it creates,” Gutekunst said of tripling up at a position last week at the NFL scouting combine.
It’s also true GMs can’t get everything they want in a draft. Gutekunst has 11 picks, including five in the first three rounds, but he has a roster full of needs. That’s always the case, for every team. He can’t just think of only one or two positions.
There’s also a chance this draft will make it tougher for the GM to find three backs worth the draft price. This reportedly is not a strong year for running back prospects. Still, most years there are good players to be found, even in the later rounds, if you scout well and have a little luck. Hard to think some good backs aren’t there somewhere.
To be sure, drafting another Jones is asking for a lot. Anyone who’s watched the Packers the past seven years doesn’t need any stats to tell you their offense is better with him on the field. That’s the definition of a difference maker.
But the Packers need to come out of this draft with a back who’s better than Williams was a few years ago, or AJ Dillon was the past four seasons.
Gutekunst had the right idea when he drafted Dillon in the second round in 2020. Jones historically played about 60% of the team’s offensive snaps, and the Packers needed a backup who minimized the drop off when Jones wasn’t on the field.
But while Dillon had his moments, he ultimately wasn’t that guy. His four years are up, and it’s time for the Packers to move on. They can find cheaper, younger and probably better if they look hard enough in the draft.
But you can’t count on hitting on any given pick, and multiple swings is the best hedge. When Wolf drafted the three cornerbacks in ’99, the third one, Mike McKenzie, ended up being the best. When Thompson drafted two backup quarterbacks in 2008, the seventh-rounder (Matt Flynn) turned out a lot better than the second-rounder (Brian Brohm). And when Thompson drafted the three backs in ’17, the second (Jones, in the fifth-round) was best of the group (Williams was a fourthrounder, Mays a seventh).
Maybe Gutekunst sees things differently, doesn’t like the looks of this draft at running back and makes a run at, say, Jacobs, with the hopes of squeezing two good (though expensive) years out of him. But the guess here, based on Gutekunst’s history and how well things worked out going young at receiver and tight end last season, is the GM will replenish his running back corps with draft picks. Maybe one with one of his five picks in the first three rounds, and two thereafter.
Running backs have not gotten big contracts recently, but their value is as strong as ever
The position is too important to not address in such a drastic way. Running the ball well is a must for coach Matt LaFleur’s offense, which is built around having runs and passes look the same to the defense. Jordan Love is still a young quarterback, and the Packers need to help him as much as they can. Even Aaron Rodgers, a four-time NFL MVP, was plainly better when he had a good back (i.e., Jones) on the field.
It’s strange how running back, in fact, has become both devalued and as important as ever in today’s NFL.
It’s devalued because backs get hurt, miss games and have short careers. The franchise tag for running backs ($11.9 million) is the lowest of any position in the league except for kicker/punter ($5.9 million). Why pay them when teams seem to find decent backs almost anywhere in the draft? Kansas City, for instance, has won the past two Super Bowls with a 2022 seventh-rounder (Isiah Pacheco) as its primary back.
But running backs are as important as ever because good ones are a quarterback’s best friend. And complete backs who excel in the run and pass games are a matchup nightmare. There’s a reason Christian McCaffrey finished third in the NFL’s MVP voting last season.
“I think it’s an incredibly important position,” Gutekunst said at the combine. “It’s been in the headlines a lot because people talking about it’s being devalued. I don’t think the position is devalued. I think obviously contractually things are different because of the injury rate there, but I don’t believe you can have just one. I think you have to have two.”
That’s why Gutekunst has to think about drafting three running backs. He has a lot of needs, he can’t fill them all, and he can’t count on hitting on any given pick. But he must find at least one young back who can play.