Trump edges Biden as economy brightens
USA TODAY/Suffolk poll shows fluid electorate
Donald Trump edged President Joe Biden 40%-38% in an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, a neartie in a fluid electorate as the candidates head out of the starting gate.
The first USA TODAY survey since the two contenders effectively moved closer to their presidential nominations found a significant group of voters who were unhappy with their options and open to being persuaded – ingredients for a turbulent campaign.
In what could be good news for Biden, an increasing number of Americans reported seeing green shoots in the economy. It’s the rosiest economic assessment since the early days of his presidency.
“I think public awareness is starting to catch up with the reality that the economy is actually doing really, really well,” said Craig Richey, 62, a composer in Los Angeles who was called in the poll. A Democrat, he said the “noise machine on the other side” had drowned out Biden’s “phenomenal” accomplishments in rebuilding a pandemicwracked economy.
But Nick Garcia, 40, a mechanic from Cadiz, Kentucky, who plans to vote for Trump, blamed Biden for the downturn he sees. “I think it’s just struggling to hang on,” he said of the economy in a follow-up phone interview. “When Trump was in office, I was doing really good.”
The poll of 1,000 registered voters, taken by landline and cellphone March 8-11, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
25% might switch pick
Nearly eight months out, the election is not set: One in 4 of those surveyed said they might change their minds before November.
That unsettled sentiment was bipartisan, including 14% of Biden voters and 15% of Trump voters.
Most of those now backing a thirdparty candidate said they were open to changing their minds, among them 75% of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters and 94% of Jill Stein supporters. That signals the potential erosion that independent candidates often see as Election Day nears.
It also provides a big opportunity for each major-party candidate to make his case to voters who are now reluctant or unwilling to support him − and to convince those voters that it would be dangerous or unwise to back the other guy.
One key swing group has been dubbed the “double haters,” the 15% who dislike both Biden and Trump.
In the survey, 25% of them supported Trump, 18% Biden and 44% third-party candidates. Kennedy drew more of these voters, 21%, than Biden did.
Jana Pender, 67, a retired casino housekeeper from Detroit, is a registered Democrat but now considers herself an independent. She said neither party was doing enough to represent working people on the economy or address the humanitarian plight of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
She won’t vote for Trump and was “99%” sure she won’t support Biden
Can the economy boost Biden?
Voters ranked inflation and the economy as the most important issue determining their vote, at 29%, with immigration (24%) and threats to democracy (23%) close behind. The only other issue that broke into double digits was abortion, at 10%.
Views of the economy have rebounded to the most optimistic level since Biden moved into the White House.
In the 10 national USA TODAY/Suffolk polls since then, the percentage who said there was an economic recovery underway stood at 32% in the first one and steadily fell to a low of 9% in July 2022.
Since then, it has steadily risen to 33% in the latest one.
That could boost Biden, whose approval-disapproval rating was still decidedly tepid, at 41%-55%. Still, that did reflect an improvement since the previous USA TODAY/Suffolk poll result of 39%-58%, in late December.
Biden is now backed by 81% of his fellow Democrats, with the rest scattered among third-party candidates; 5% were undecided. Among Biden’s supporters, 54% said they were voting mostly for him; 41% were voting mostly against Trump.
“The biggest thing for me is that he’s not Trump,” said Matt Williams, 30, a teacher from Sidney, New York, accusing the former president of trying to “gut” democracy. Still, Williams said he wasn’t “super-stoked” about Biden. “I wish we had other popular Democratic candidates who are younger,” he said, mentioning California Rep. Katie Porter and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Trump faced some erosion within his party as well: 85% of Republicans were supporting him, with 6% backing Kennedy and 2% undecided. That said, his voters were significantly more positively committed to their candidate: 74% said they were voting mostly for him, 22% mostly against Biden.
In fact, Trump’s approval rating for the job he did as president was higher than when he was actually in office. Now 49% express approval, 47% disapproval.
Impact of speeches and trials
Both Democrats and Republicans seemed prepared for a 2020 rematch.
Among Democrats, 82% said they would feel “excited” or “satisfied” by Biden’s formal nomination at the convention, while 86% of Republicans said the same of Trump’s nomination.
Biden’s State of the Union address last week had a mixed impact on the 56% of Americans who saw all or part of it: 33% said it made their view of Biden better, 28% worse.
Looking ahead, 44% said they planned to follow Trump’s hush money trial in New York. But the effect a conviction could have on their vote seemed small: Among Trump voters, 84% said they would still vote for him if he were convicted in this trial or others.
“The indictments are make-believe,” scoffed Richard Krasnodemski, 80, a retired auto worker from Allen Park, Michigan.
Sarah Sabornie, a retired nurse from Cary, North Carolina, declared her support for “Joseph Robinette Biden,” using his full name and underscoring the high stakes in the election.