Poll: Tight races in Wisconsin
2024 will be close battle for presidency, Senate seats
MADISON – With seven months to go until the 2024 election, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain locked in a tight race in Wisconsin, according to the newest Marquette University Law School Poll.
The poll released Wednesday also provided the first glimpse into Wisconsin’s contested U.S. Senate race since Republican Eric Hovde entered the race, indicating a close contest with incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin.
Wisconsin is one of just a handful of contested states that will decide the next presidential contest and as of now, Biden and Trump are just 2 points apart in the battleground state where statewide races are often decided by just a few thousand votes.
Among both registered voters and likely voters, 51% supported Trump while 49% supported Biden. That includes undecided voters (8% of those polled) who were then asked, if they had to choose right now, who they would support. Undecided voters tended to break toward Biden, poll director Charles Franklin noted during Wednesday’s release of the poll.
“If anything, there is a slight movement in Trump’s direction,” Franklin said.
The latest poll surveyed 814 registered voters in Wisconsin between April 3-10. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points, Franklin said. The poll survey makeup was 34% Republican, 31% Democratic and 34%
independent — a slightly heavier sample of Republican than on average.
Trump leads on immigration, economy; Biden on health care, abortion
Fifty-three percent of registered voters believe Trump would do a better job handling immigration and border security, compared to 28% who prefer Biden’s approach. Trump also leads on handling the Israel-Hamas war, 46-26, and on the economy, 52-34. The candidates are closer on foreign relations, with Trump leading 44% to Biden’s 41%.
Forty-five percent of registered voters believe Biden would handle Medicare and Social Security better, to Trump’s 37%. Biden leads on abortion policy, 46-37, and on health care, 45-35.
One-third of voters surveyed named the economy as their most important issue, followed by 21% who named immigration and border security, 13% who named abortion and 11% who named Medicare and Social Security. Foreign relations came in at 6%, followed by health care at 5% and the Israel-Hamas war at 2%.
Most voters think Biden is too old, Trump has behaved corruptly
Eighty percent of voters believe Biden is too old to be president, compared to 58% who think that of Trump. Biden is 81; Trump is 77.
Asked which candidate most shares their values, 48% named Biden and 45% named Trump. Asked which candidate has the right temperament to serve as president, Biden topped Trump 52-41.
Sixty-one percent of voters said they believed Trump has behaved corruptly, compared to 47% who said that of Biden. And 58% of voters said Trump has made strong accomplishments, compared to 44% who attributed that quality to Trump.
Effect of RJK Jr., other third-party candidates is minimal
The race changed very little when respondents were given the option of third-party candidates.
With five candidates on the list, 41% of registered voters said they would vote for Trump, while 40% backed Biden.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., netted 13% of registered voters, followed by Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3% and independent candidate Cornel West at 2%.
Voter enthusiasm is low
Only 47% of those surveyed said they are “very enthusiastic” about voting — down slightly from 49% in January. That’s a dramatic drop from March 2020, when 67% of voters were very enthusiastic about the election.
Franklin noted that measure didn’t transfer to the percentage of voters who say they’re certain they’ll cast a ballot.
“So possibly we have a bunch of unenthusiastic, but committed, voters,” Franklin said.
The people who are “very enthusiastic” break toward Trump, 59-41, and those who are “somewhat enthusiastic” lean toward Trump 55-45. That’s a reversal from the last poll, when Biden had a modest advantage. On the other hand, Biden leads — 64-46 and 6237 — among voters who are not very or not at all enthusiastic.
In Marquette’s previous Wisconsin survey, 63% of Republican voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting for president and other offices this fall. Only 39% of Democrats said so. That was by far the biggest partisan disparity (24 points) ever measured by Marquette, which has asked the question 34 times from 2014 to 2024.
“Biden supporters, or would-be supporters, aren’t super excited about that, but they seem to still prefer him and be likely to vote for him, if they vote,” Franklin said.
What Franklin will be watching: “Does this low enthusiasm translate into a real turnout problem for Democrats?”
Fresh glimpse into Baldwin, Hovde Senate race
In the U.S. Senate race, Hovde, a banking and real estate mogul, launched his bid to deny Baldwin a third term in February. He previously ran for Senate in 2012 but finished a close second to former Wisconsin Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson in the primary. Thompson went on to lose to Baldwin by nearly 6 points. Hovde also weighed a race against Baldwin in 2018 but backed off, and briefly considered a run for governor in 2022.
Among registered voters, 52% said they backed Baldwin while 47% supported Hovde. That’s including the 18% of undecided voters who were asked to name the candidate they would support if they were forced to choose. Without those undecided voters, Baldwin led 44-37.
The last time Marquette was in the field, Hovde hadn’t yet made his campaign official — but political observers expected him to enter the race. In the Feb. 7 poll, which came two weeks before Hovde’s announcement, 84% of registered voters said they hadn’t heard enough about him or didn’t know their opinion, while 7% had a favorable opinion and 9% had an unfavorable view.
The percentage of voters without an opinion on Hovde dropped down to 56% in the most recent poll.
“It is pretty striking in a two-month period from January to now to see that major step of people having opinions of him,” Franklin said.
Hovde is viewed unfavorably by 24% of voters and favorably by 19% of voters.