NOAA experts predict a wet winter; temps a tougher call

A weather pattern associated with cooler winter weather has developed in the Equatorial Pacific, but a Cmuprofessor says that doesn’t necessarily mean months of ice cold temperatures.

The La Nina, the cooler counterpart to El Nino in the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle, that will influence thiswinter’sweather is expected to be a weak one, said Marty Baxter, a Cmumeteorology professor.

While a Lanina can exert a significant influence over theweather over the course of a winter, that’s not always the case, Baxter said. There might be other factors that are not as well understood that could play a role, too.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2020-21 winter outlook this week based on that outlook. Most of the Great Lakes is right in themiddle between areas of probability for a colder winter and a warmer one.

Some media outlets have reported that the outlook calls for periods of warmer-than-usual

weather and of colder-thanusualweather, balancing out inthe endasanaveragewinter

hat that really means, Baxter said, is that we have equal chances to have a warmer-than-average winter, a colder-than-average winter and an average winterwhen it comes to temperature.

While that probability might apply across the state, different parts of Michigan could experience verydiffer

ent winters.

“In addition, the variation in temperatures and precipitation during the winter can be significant, even if these forecasts are correct,” he said. “So how each person experiences winter will be different, making these forecasts difficult to communicate.”

When it comes to snow, most of Michigan is likely to see more of it than in an average winter. The entire Lower Peninsula and easternhalf of theupper is about 50 percent likely to seemore precipitation than in a normal year, according to the NOAA winter outlook.