Experts: Experience convinced Midwest of dangers
SIOUX FALLS, S. D. » As much of the country experiences spiking virus rates, a reprieve from a devastating surge of the coronavirus in the Upper Midwest has given cautious relief to health officials, though they worry that infections remain rampant and holiday gatherings could reignite the worst outbreaks of the pandemic.
States in the northern stretches of the Midwest and Great Plains saw the nation’s worst rates of coronavirus infections in the weeks before Thanksgiving, stretching hospitals beyond capacity and leading to states such as North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin reporting some of the nation’s highest deaths per capita during November.
But over the last two weeks, those states have seen their average daily cases drop, with decreases ranging from 20% in Iowa to as much as 66% in North Dakota, according to Johns Hopkins researchers. Since the middle of November, the entire region has returned to levels similar to those seen in October.
“We’re in a place where we’ve controlled the fire, but it would be very easy for it to flare up again if conditions were right,” said Ryan Demmer, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health.
For a region that was a harbinger of the virus waves that now plague much of the country, the positive direction in the Midwest offers hope that people can rally to take virus precautions seriously as they await vaccines during what experts think will be the final months of the pandemic. Governors have used the declining numbers to justify their divergent approaches to fighting the pandemic, even jousting at times. In Minnesota, Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, has defended keeping some restrictions in place through early January, saying limits on bars and restaurants are working. In neighboring South Dakota, Republican Gov. Kristi Noem has argued the opposite, using the recent decline in numbers in her state to argue that mask mandates don’t make a difference.
But some epidemiologists believe the most compelling factor for many who redoubled their efforts to prevent infections may be that they experienced the virus on a personal level. As the pandemic crept into communities across the Midwest, more people had loved ones, friends or acquaintances fall ill or die.
“It’s fox hole religion — the whole thing gets a lot more real when the guy next to you gets shot,” said Dr. Christine Petersen, the director of the Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases at the University of Iowa. “All of a sudden, your local hospital is full, and your sister, aunt, or grandmother is in the hospital.”
Roughly one of out every 278 people across northern states spanning from Wisconsin to Montana required hospital care for COVID-19, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project. In tight-knit communities, those experiences hit home.
The virus outbreak was so widespread by early November that nearly everyone has known someone severely affected by COVID-19, said Dr. James Lawler with the University of Nebraska Medical Center’s Global Center for Health Security.