Next in Moscow’s crosshairs: Tiny Moldova?

As Russia presses ahead with its war against Ukraine, fears have grown in Europe that the Kremlin has its sights on new targets in pursuit of Vladimir Putin’s imperial fantasies. Now the concern is that he might not wait until the fighting in Ukraine has subsided before taking aim at a new target: the tiny former Soviet republic Moldova.

Moldova - landlocked, roughly the size of Maryland and with a population smaller than Chicago’s - has neither the territorial depth nor the populace, let alone the military might, to stand up to Moscow. Much as Ukraine incurred Mr. Putin’s ire by hoping to become more fully democratic, pluralistic and prowestern, Moldova’s current president and its government have done the same, for instance, by sending representatives to forums hosted by the European Union and NATO.

The country is a long way from joining either group, but even its interest has been enough to infuriate Moscow. Early this month, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the West wanted Moldova to “play the role of the next Ukraine.” Given recent history, it would be naive to take that as an empty threat.

Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries, is exceptionally fragile.

A narrow breakaway strip of its eastern frontier, bordering Ukraine, has been occupied for 30 years by a garrison of Russian troops that now numbers roughly 1,500. Russian propaganda and disinformation are widely disseminated and often used to discredit the government.

Moscow has its hands full in Ukraine, to say the least; it would be folly to tie down troops occupying Moldova. Yet Mr. Putin has revealed himself as a master of folly. Arguably, the longer the current stalemate in Ukraine drags on, the more tempting a target Moldova might present, as a means for the Kremlin to save face by rolling over an officially neutral country with just 2.6 million people.

Were Russian troops to invade, Moldova would be hardpressed to offer much resistance. Moscow, however, might not need boots on the ground to destabilize the Moldovan government.

On Feb. 10, Moldova’s prime minister, Natalia Gavrilita, resigned the day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that a Russian plot was afoot to topple her government. The day she stepped down, a Russian missile streaked through Moldovan skies en route to its target in Ukraine, the latest such violation of the country’s airspace.

Officials said the resignation was a run-of-the-mill government reshuffle.

But it was also the indirect result of a Russian pressure campaign, including a sharp reduction of natural gas supplies that has triggered a severe energy crisis and helped drive soaring inflation.

Moldovan political parties backed by Moscow have staged street demonstrations, some of which feature “protesters” who are paid.

And President Maia Sandu, elected in 2020 on a pro-western platform, said Moscow has been planning a coup to install a pro-russian government in Chisinau, the Moldovan capital.

She has succeeded in making the country a formal candidate for the E.U. And European nations, along with NATO, have been modestly helping beef up Moldova’s military. That is the right response to Russia’s sword-rattling.

Backing down in the face of a bully’s intimidation is a prescription for more of the same.