The United States will have to intervene in Haiti
Haiti is a story that appears to repeat itself while also growing inexorably worse over time. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent meeting in Jamaica with fractious Haitian political and civil society leaders recalled a similar moment when I was U.S. ambassador to Haiti 20 years ago. Back then, the worst outcomes were avoided through decisive American intervention. Today’s crisis might require it as well.
In late February 2004, Port-au-prince was falling into chaos. Criminal gangs loyal to then-president Jean-bertrand Aristide were on a rampage, even as a ragtag band of ex-military thugs led by warlord Guy Philippe pressed on the capital, seeking to topple the government. In a last-ditch attempt to forge compromise between the opposition and Aristide, I arranged for Secretary of State Colin Powell to call in to my meeting with heads of political parties and civil society representatives. Powell’s impassioned pledge of U.S. support was roundly rejected. From that point forward, my aim was to thwart the designs of those in the room — now obviously aligned with the approaching rebel forces — while also pressuring Aristide to rein in his lawless gangs.
A bloodbath seemed imminent. It was altogether unclear which side would prevail — and whether any government that emerged from the carnage would be one the international community could recognize and support. Aristide finally lost his nerve, contacting me to request the United States arrange his escape from the country. We then outflanked coup plotters by facilitating the swearing-in of his constitutional successor as president. But it was only thanks to the timely arrival of about 2,000 U.S. Marines that anarchy was avoided and an interim government was established in a Haitian-run process.
Haiti’s dysfunction is a permanent condition that continues to force itself upon the agenda of American policymakers. Time and again, they find themselves confronting a reality that is almost impossible for outsiders to comprehend. In Haiti’s political culture, trust and a willingness to compromise are virtually nonexistent, with political actors locked in an endless power struggle. In a country suffering from a massive mismatch between state capacity and society’s needs, issues of governance are shockingly absent from the political agenda. Even for an external actor as powerful as the United States, Haiti is a natural graveyard for the best-intentioned policies.
Today, Washington is once again desperately trying to piece together a transitional political arrangement, having too long propped up the feckless Ariel Henry as prime minister. It is in a race against time, and, in my view, it is unlikely to succeed, or even get international security forces into the country, without providing U.S. military cover.
However, the Biden administration appears determined to avoid participating in any international security mission in Haiti, even as famine lurks and what remains of state institutions and public infrastructure is being eradicated. This represents an extraordinary break with the U.S. approach to the Caribbean since the late 19th century. The decision is probably being driven by the overwhelming demands and potential contingencies confronting U.S. military forces in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. But while an overstretched United States might need to reconfigure its global posture, withdrawing from the Western Hemisphere will always be impossible.
Among the international community’s many mistakes and failures over the decades, perhaps none was more fateful than the decision — supported by the Trump administration — to withdraw all U.N. military and police personnel from Haiti between 2017 and 2019. The absence of a credible Haitian security force led to the progressive collapse of state institutions and opened the door to the anarchy now gripping the country.
In the current crisis, many are calling for Haitian-led or even Haitian-only solutions, but this is unrealistic in view of the security situation. Haiti’s outgunned and outnumbered police force has fought bravely to preserve the state, but it might not hold out against criminal gangs that have recently formed an alliance to seize power. In these dire circumstances, it is extremely difficult to imagine how any legitimate interim government can be formed. It is more likely that Philippe, who was inexplicably returned by Washington to Haiti four months ago after serving a federal sentence for drug-related money laundering, will succeed where he came up short 20 years ago — when he was blocked by U.S. diplomats at the gates of the National Palace.
If that comes to pass, the United States will face a failed state run by criminals and narco-traffickers about 700 miles from Florida. Even a future Trump administration professing indifference to human suffering in Haiti would have to grapple with manifold law enforcement and national security problems spreading to our shores.
A military intervention in Haiti is understandably abhorrent to the Biden administration given the multiple security challenges the United States is juggling around the world. But the situation has deteriorated to the point that Washington might have no choice but to mount an abbreviated operation to supplant the gangs and facilitate a political transition.
With a new government in place, the United States could rapidly hand security responsibility over to the international community, anchored by a Kenyan police detachment already approved by the United Nations. But without it, the chances of a final meltdown and a more substantial intervention will continue to grow.
Haiti’s outgunned and outnumbered police force has fought bravely to preserve the state, but it might not hold out against criminal gangs that have recently formed an alliance to seize power.