What to know about the multiday threat across Central U.S.

A multiday stretch of severe weather began Monday and will carry though at least Thursday as repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms target the Plains, Midwest and Mid-south. Strong tornadoes were possible both Monday and today over the central states, including after dark amid a chaotic — and concerning — weather setup.

Monday’s risk was a “conditional” one — meaning the ingredients for strong tornadoes were present, but it’s unclear whether they might overlap in the correct way to be fully tapped into. The same is true today, when the bull’s eye of risk will shift from Kansas and Nebraska to Iowa and Missouri, though severe storms are possible all the way south to the Ozarks.

“Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts all appear possible,” wrote the National

Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. “Strong tornadoes may occur this evening across parts of Kansas and Nebraska.”

Both days have already been advertised by the agency to have a level 3 out of 5 “enhanced” risk for severe weather. Monday’s zone included Lincoln, Valentine and Grand Island, Neb., as well as Hutchinson, Salina and Hays, Kan.; a level 2 out of 5 risk reaches down to Oklahoma City, and even stretches southwestward toward Abilene, Tex.

Today, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Iowa City are in the enhanced area, as is Columbia, Mo. The level 2 out of 5 risk encompasses Omaha, Kansas City, Chicago, St. Louis and Little Rock.

At least some risk of severe weather is anticipated to continue into Thursday.

Today, the low-pressure system pushes to the east. The greatest severe weather risk will be in northern Missouri and Iowa.

The forecast environment will be challenging though. While wind shear, or a change of wind speed and/ or direction with height, will be present, supporting rotation, it’s not known whether robust storm fuel will be available.

It’s likely that leftover storms from Nebraska and Kansas will push into today’s risk area, traversing the region during the morning as thunderstorms with heavy downpour and small hail potential. That line of storms may intensify into the afternoon with eastward extent.

If there is clearing, and sunshine can heat the ground in the wake of the first round of storms, then additional severe thunderstorm development, with the risk of tornadoes, would be possible.

More severe storms look possible over Kentucky on Wednesday and parts of eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas into Thursday.